Back nearly a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of the 2018Q2 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
August employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this mid-December Political Calculations assertion that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release provides an opportunity to revisit this question (the 2018Q1 state GDP figures are discussed here). It’s (still) unlikely that a recession occurred.
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of the 2018Q1 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
According to data released today, Wisconsin ranks 40th in the first read on 2018Q1 state GDP growth. Washington state ranks first (even though it’s ranked 37th for economic outlook in the 2018 ALEC-Arthur Laffer-Steven Mooore-Jonathan Williams Rich States Poor States).
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
The release of May state-level employment and coincident index figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
First, the coincident indicators for California and US:
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Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. The release of April state-level employment figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred, and is currently not occurring.
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. Following last week’s state-level GDP release for 2017Q4 and Philadelphia Fed indices from a week and a half ago — it’s likely no recession occurred, and is currently not occurring.
Using today’s state level GDP release, we can assess how highly ranked states like Kansas performed subsequently, as compared to poorly ranked states like California.
Figure 1: Log California real GDP (blue), Kansas (red), and US (black), normalized to 2011Q1=0. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. [##] denote Rich States, Poor States 2013 Economic Outlook rankings for 2013 (based on 2012 data). Source: BEA, May 2018, NBER, ALEC, and author’s calculations.
Both Governors Brown and Walker are coming to the end of their second terms. Time to appraise how their respective economies have fared, in terms of employment.
Back in mid-December, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession. Following Monday’s state-level employment release incorporating benchmarked data, we have a better idea of the answer — it’s likely no.