CES based employment indicators (NFP, private NFP, hourly wages, hours) essentially at consensus. Here’s the roundup of key NBER indicators (of which employment and personal income ex-transfers are central).
Category Archives: employment
ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms
+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (although the 95% prediction interval encompasses a drop to 135310K from January’s 135479K).
NFP Prospects
Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
Who Gave this Guy an Economics Ph.D. (cont’d)?
Remember when Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni posted on X this graph?
Business Cycle Indicators, with Monthly GDP and Household Employment Research Series
S&P Global Market Intelligence has put up monthly GDP through December. Here’s a picture of NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators along with monthly GDP.
*Reported* Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%)(!)
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2025 employment figures (but 2024 not updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted civilian employment (household survey) disappears as a consequence.
Will the MacIver Institute Issue a Retraction to “Evers’ Economy Is a Soviet Dream”
Why The MacIver Institute Should Be Charged with Data Abuse
In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:
Reconciling the CES NFP with CPS Employment Adjusted to NFP Concept
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni has been describing the gap between the establishment NFP series and the CPS employment series as the basis for evidence of mismeasurement of employment by the CES. Goldman Sachs notes today (Peng, “Revised Immigration Estimates Will Close Much of the Payroll-Household Employment Growth Gap in January”) that new Census estimates of immigration will imply a big revision in population controls used in the CPS employment series.
Six Measures of NFP Change since 2023M12, Four Measures of Private NFP
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment?