EJ Antoni/Heritage writes:
Another month, another record high for the number of gov’t employees
Disingenuousnous Watch
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Category Archives: employment
EJ Antoni Worries about the Gap between CES NFP and CPS Employment
From a X post today:
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024
Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).
DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”
(Or, ” I have in my hand fifty-seven cases of individuals…”) At 3:44 into this video, this Ms. DiMartino Booth makes this assertion, claiming this is the reason we haven’t seen a recession in the data pre-election.
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward:
Wisconsin Employment Rises in October
NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises.
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs. 34.2).
Private NFP Nowcast
Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October.
McService Job Nation?
Reader Moonmac argues the case that we are in a recession, in a rejoinder my paper “Recession since 2022? A Critique“:
McService Job Nation disagrees even though they’re employed. Gainfully is a different matter.
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months.