Beware the aggregates. The slowdown is showing up in smaller firms first, according to BLS Business Employment Dynamics data.
Divergence in Employment Growth, by Firm Size
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Category Archives: employment
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which missed consensus by 84K on the downside)
Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of Wisconsin NFP.
Business Cycle Indicators plus Employment for February
CES based employment indicators (NFP, private NFP, hourly wages, hours) essentially at consensus. Here’s the roundup of key NBER indicators (of which employment and personal income ex-transfers are central).
ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms
+77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K (although the 95% prediction interval encompasses a drop to 135310K from January’s 135479K).
NFP Prospects
Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok):
Who Gave this Guy an Economics Ph.D. (cont’d)?
Remember when Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni posted on X this graph?
Business Cycle Indicators, with Monthly GDP and Household Employment Research Series
S&P Global Market Intelligence has put up monthly GDP through December. Here’s a picture of NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee indicators along with monthly GDP.
*Reported* Civilian Employment Jumps 2.4 Million (1.5%)(!)
I.e., Beware the footnotes. New population controls results in updated 2025 employment figures (but 2024 not updated). Much of the purported gap between NFP (establishment survey) and adjusted civilian employment (household survey) disappears as a consequence.