Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which means the surprise is about one standard deviation.
Category Archives: employment
Wisconsin Economic Outlook (Nov 2024)
This forecast from the Wisconsin Dept of Revenue based on S&P Global national forecast finalized before the election.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
Disingenuousnous Watch
EJ Antoni Worries about the Gap between CES NFP and CPS Employment
From a X post today:
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024
Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).
DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”
(Or, ” I have in my hand fifty-seven cases of individuals…”) At 3:44 into this video, this Ms. DiMartino Booth makes this assertion, claiming this is the reason we haven’t seen a recession in the data pre-election.
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward:
Wisconsin Employment Rises in October
NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises.
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3 vs. 34.2).