In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:
Category Archives: employment
Reconciling the CES NFP with CPS Employment Adjusted to NFP Concept
Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni has been describing the gap between the establishment NFP series and the CPS employment series as the basis for evidence of mismeasurement of employment by the CES. Goldman Sachs notes today (Peng, “Revised Immigration Estimates Will Close Much of the Payroll-Household Employment Growth Gap in January”) that new Census estimates of immigration will imply a big revision in population controls used in the CPS employment series.
Six Measures of NFP Change since 2023M12, Four Measures of Private NFP
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment?
Employment in December
Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which means the surprise is about one standard deviation.
Wisconsin Economic Outlook (Nov 2024)
This forecast from the Wisconsin Dept of Revenue based on S&P Global national forecast finalized before the election.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
Disingenuousnous Watch
EJ Antoni Worries about the Gap between CES NFP and CPS Employment
From a X post today:
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024
Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).
DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”
(Or, ” I have in my hand fifty-seven cases of individuals…”) At 3:44 into this video, this Ms. DiMartino Booth makes this assertion, claiming this is the reason we haven’t seen a recession in the data pre-election.