The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the number of Americans with jobs only increased by 88,000 in March on a seasonally adjusted basis. That’s one of the weakest months in the last two years. Although it’s clearly a disappointment, I would caution against reading too much into the latest number.
Category Archives: employment
Heritage on Seasonal Adjustment
Is February employment growth overstated due to statistical problems?
Minimum wage and unemployment
With the recent proposal to raise the minimum wage, I noticed that California currently has one of the highest minimum wages ($8.00/hour) and one of the highest unemployment rates (9.8%) in the country.
The January 2013 Employment Release
Private nonfarm payroll employment in continues to rise, by 166,000; December 2012 employment is revised up by 0.6% (log terms), when incorporating the benchmark revision (0.5% for total nonfarm payroll employment).
Guest Contribution: “The Myth of ‘Jobless Recoveries'”
(a.k.a. Okun’s Law is Alive and Well)
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurence Ball (Johns Hopkins University), Daniel Leigh (IMF) and Prakash Loungani (IMF) .
QE3 and beyond
Now that we’ve closed the books on 2012, I thought it might be useful to take a look at where monetary policy has led us over the last four years.
Guest Contribution: “An assessment of the US jobless recovery through a non-linear Okun’s law”
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West) and
and Valérie Mignon (EconomiX-CNRS, University Paris West and CEPII).
The October Employment Situation: Continued Improvement
Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the improvement in nonfarm payroll and private nonfarm payroll employment, respectively. Figure 3 highlights the fact that total civilian employment and labor force both increased in October. Interestingly, civilian employment growth in October continues that reported for September, the veracity of which some observers had questioned.
The Employment and GDP Relationship
The latest GDP release gives me the opportunity to re-evaluate whether job creation is less than what would be expected, given the growth in real GDP. At first glance, it seems obvious that growth in employment is less than expected. A simple OLS regression of log private employment on log real GDP over the 1987Q1-2012Q3, which might be implied by a particular form of Okun’s Law.
Economic Effects of Hurricane Sandy
As the eastern U.S. tries to dig out from under the devastation, I thought it might be useful to comment on the economic consequences that a storm like this could have.