The Labor Department reported today that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 27,000 in the most recent available week. Although that’s a disappointing development, it’s still a small enough increase to allow the 4-week average to fall for the second week in a row. Since that declining 4-week average is one of the few encouraging pieces of news in an otherwise discouraging economic landscape, I wanted to take a closer look at just how significant a statistical signal it really sends.
Category Archives: employment
Update on the latest economic indicators
Some good news, some bad, in the indicators we follow this week.
Initial unemployment claims and the end of recessions
Fed Chair Ben Bernanke a few weeks ago said he saw some green shoots
of favorable developments in financial markets. Does today’s Labor Department report that the seasonally adjusted number of initial claims for unemployment insurance fell by 20,000 workers in the most recent week constitute another?
Signs of a thaw
Yes, I saw the discouraging headlines. But I also see signs of hope in last week’s economic news.
Employment and Output in December
From Bloomberg:
The U.S. lost more jobs in 2008 than in any year since 1945 as employers fired another 524,000 people in December, indicating a free-fall in the economy just days before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.
The Employment Situation in Pictures
Rather than engage in long commentary, I thought a set of pictures would be sufficient to convey the deteriorating macroeconomic situation, at least as reflected in the labor market.
The Economic Situation: Some Random Snapshots
The latest employment release was stunning, insofar as the NFP employment figure was far below consensus [0]. Net job loss was 240K, rather than 200K; moreover, September job loss was revised upward by 125K. In addition to Jim’s assessment, some reaction is summarized here. The acceleration in net job loss is depicted in Figure 1.
A very weak employment report
More bad economic news arrived today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The downturn worsens
UCLA Professor Ed Leamer recently proposed four criteria for determining whether the economy is in recession, and concluded at the time of his study (two months ago) that the U.S. had not yet crossed that threshold. But this week’s data might cause him to change his mind.
Back to the Real Side of the Economy: Recession Watch
Only on a day like today does an over 1 percent decrease in industrial output move to third page. But this item (and this hilarious article h/t Economists View) reminded me to update the indicators used by the NBER BCDC are headed. Their trajectories are, in general, not too comforting.