Category Archives: employment

Wisconsin End-of-2023 Surge

From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively.  While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.

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The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators for February

January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus. With combined downward revisions in the prior two months totaling 168 thousand, the level of employment is just about consistent with implied consensus. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.

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