From BEA state level data released on Friday. GDP grows 4.2% SAAR, Chained CPI deflated wages and salaries by 1.9%; Year-on-Year, 1.5% and 3.0% respectively. While NFP only grew 0.9% q/q AR, the Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark measure of NFP grew 1.5%.
Category Archives: employment
February 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast
Released today. Continued growth in employment, GDP, based on national trends and outlook from SPGMI (report here).
Wisconsin Employment in February: Continued Growth
Employment still outstripping the November Wisconsin DoR forecast, based on SPGMI national outlook.
Wisconsin Employment Outperforming DoR November Forecast
As the nation outperforms, so too does Wisconsin. Employment exceeds the DoR November forecast.
Why I Don’t Put Too Much Weight on the State Level Household Survey Employment Series
Just a picture:
Wisconsin Employment in January
January employment numbers, incorporating annual revisions, are out for Wisconsin. Here’s a picture of some indicators.
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators for February
January NFP employment growth surprises on the upside, at +275 vs. +198 thousands consensus. With combined downward revisions in the prior two months totaling 168 thousand, the level of employment is just about consistent with implied consensus. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Some Reactions to the Employment Situation Release for January
Here’s FoxBusiness’s web coverage of the employment release (around 4pm CT):
The Wisconsin Economic Situation
WMC has a survey of 180 member firms out indicating only 22% of respondents believed that the Wisconsin economy is strong.
What’s the Actual Strength of the Labor Market? CPS vs CES vs ADP vs ISM
Some commentators have focused on the sharp declines in civilian employment as well as the ISM services employment diffusion index as signaling greater weakness than suggested by the establishment survey.