NFP growth beats Bloomberg consensus by 46K (private NFP by 36K). Looking at several measures of NFP (total, private) suggests continued growth.
Category Archives: employment
The Wisconsin Macro Outlook (Updated for Employment Release)
Yesterday, the Wisconsin macro outlook was reviewed in the context of the November Economic Forecast released by the DoR. Today, we can update the picture, using the newly released employment numbers (piece on WPR today).
Business Cycle Indicators with November Employment
With nonfarm payroll employment in November released (+199K vs. +180K consensus), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (plus monthly GDP). The employment series below incorporates the preliminary benchmark revision.
The Employment Situation Release and Purported BLS “Upward Goalseeking”
When I want to know what the crazies are thinking, I go to zerohedge. On the BLS employment situation release, I saw zerohedge [1] asserting that the 336K number was the outcome of “upward goalseeking”. “Goalseeking”, I had to look up, “…is the process of calculating in reverse to find the right method when only the desired outcome is known.”
The Employment Situation Release and Business Cycle Indicators
With September employment reported today (336K vs. 170K Bloomberg consensus), we have the following picture of the economy.
Scavino (or Kudlow) Strike Again: Disinformation Edition
I saw this screenshot of a post from Dan Scavino, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications in the Trump White House, and former caddie for a party at the Trump National Golf Club Westchester (at that time, Briar Hall Country Club), and thought “those numbers don’t look right”.
Guest Contribution: “Startups create fewer jobs and do not survive as long as previously reported”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Rob Fairlie Professor of public policy and economics at UCLA.
The Employment Release, News, and Futures-Implied Fed Funds
NFP employment at 187K (vs. Bloomberg consensus 170K), while average hourly earnings y/y up 4.3% (vs. consensus 4.4%). Combined with to June figures and preliminary benchmark revision, we have a picture of a cooler labor market.
Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment – Three Measures
So far, slowing employment growth.
QCEW Release and 4 Measures of NFP Employment
Here’s a picture of employment, normalized to 2022M03.