Corrected Source: NOAA, accessed 9/13/2017.

Update, 9/13, 8:15am Pacific: A common refrain is that it’s been hotter in the distant past. I think it’s important to remember that while there has always been variation in temperatures, a question is whether temperatures have changed so rapidly in such a short period of time in a time (post-dinosaur, e.g.). If adjustment costs are quadratic, well, the first derivative (gradient) matters. To that end, consider the following graph, and the movement over the most recent period.

Source: CC BY-SA 3.0, [link].

Notice the steep ascent up to 2004; the global land/sea anomaly in Figure 1 is nearly 0.4 c higher in 2016 than 2004 (12 month thru December)..

From WaPo today:

The Trump administration has decided to disband the federal advisory panel for the National Climate Assessment, a group aimed at helping policymakers and private-sector officials incorporate the government’s climate analysis into long-term planning.

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Source: NOAA.

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Posted in case the Administration “disappears” the draft:
LINK

Here is Figure 1.1 from the document.

See NYT.

For a previous suppression effort (G.W. Bush Administration), see this post.

As noted in the NYT, the President cited this NERA study, commissioned by the American Council for Capital Formation, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Why didn’t the President rely upon his own experts within the White House?
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As the Administration contemplates deep cuts to scientific data acquisition, and deleting or restricting public access data sets, I thought it useful to post the global temperature anomaly data, accessible as of today, before it disappears.

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In my post on modeling the Kansas economy, Rick Stryker takes me to task for modeling the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Kansas as an I(1) process:

I wouldn’t bother with the ADF test, since its null is non-stationarity and it has low power to reject. I would focus on the KPSS, since its null of stationarity is almost certainly what’s really true.

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Source: NOAA

The highest point estimate for the anomaly is for 2016. For 2014, the 95% interval is ±0.09°C [1]. If that is ballpark for the 9 months estimate, then one can’t say that 2016 is hotter than 2015 (with statistical significance at the 5% msl), but can say it is hotter than 1998, a year often focused on by the “hiatus”-ers.

Update, 5:08PM Pacific: Here is a trailing 60 month moving average, ending observation for September 2016.

Source: NOAA

Complete quote: “Obama’s talking about all of this with the global warming and … a lot of it’s a hoax. It’s a hoax. I mean, it’s a money-making industry, OK? It’s a hoax, a lot of it.” — Donald J. Trump, 30 December 2015.

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