It’s very clear that two things have to happen from here. First, Greece needs relief from its mountain of debt, and second, the country needs to find a way to become more competitive economically.
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Category Archives: exchange rates
Some Recent Research on Exchange Rates
Here is some interesting work I’ve seen recently in Paris and Cambridge, MA.
The International Aspects of the Employment Release
The headline number for nonfarm payroll employment was decent [1], and although there are worrisome aspects, I think the key take-away is the fact that manufacturing employment is slowing much more than overall. To the extent that manufactured goods proxies for tradables, I think caution is in order with respect to monetary tightening. And yet, I read headlines reporting that the “Fed is on track to raise rates…”[Sparshott/RTE WSJ].
“The Top Ten Reasons Why Trade Agreements Should Not Cover Currency Manipulation”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of an earlier column at Project Syndicate.
Interest Rate Parity and Exogeneity
One of the enduring puzzles of international finance is the fact that the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity and rational expectations is consistently rejected, as evidenced by the coefficient estimates in the Fama regression.
Exchange Rate Regimes and the Global Financial Cycle
Relevant or Irrelevant?
Currency Misalignment: A Reprise
As the Congress debates currency manipulation [1], it occurs to me useful to reprise my earlier primer on currency misalignment (first published in March 2010), where misalignment is one component of some definitions of currency manipulation.
April Employment Situation: Revisions, Energy Extraction, Manufacturing
The April Employment release confirmed continued growth in total and private employment. My observations: some modest downward revisions, and some sectoral trends diverge.
Trade (Head)Winds
How Much More Dollar Appreciation?
One important factor in the growth prospects for the US economy is the trajectory of the dollar. [1] If the dollar stabilizes at March levels, US economic growth might rebound. On the other hand, continued appreciation bodes ill. Based on history over the floating rate era, the expected duration of an appreciation is about 5 years (depreciations about 2 years). The current surge in the dollar has only been going on for only slightly over half a year, although when dated from the trough of 2011Q2, it’s been going on just a bit over 4 years. Either way, by this metric, it appears that there is still some additional way to go before the dollar peaks.