Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Pierre Siklos, Professor of Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Are we in a new inflation regime?
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans got some attention recently with the following statement:
In a world of global competition and new technology, I think competition is coming from new places. New partners are choosing to merge and sort of changing the marketplace and [bringing] more competitive pressures on price margins…If that’s the case, and I think that’s just speculative at this point, then it means that we need even more accommodation to get inflation up.
Fed balance-sheet reduction not scaring anyone
Today the Federal Reserve announced that it is increasing its target for the fed funds rate to a new range of 1 to 1.25%, a development that surprised no one. But something that was not heralded in advance was the announcement that the Fed intends to “begin implementing a balance sheet normalization program this year, provided that the economy evolves broadly as anticipated.” The Fed spelled out in detail exactly what that will entail. Sometime later this year, the Fed will begin limiting the amount of maturing Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities that it reinvests, initially bringing its balance sheet down by $10 billion each month as its holdings are redeemed. Those amounts will gradually increase each month until after a year balance-sheet reduction reaches a pace of $50 billion per month. That compares with a net increase of $100B/month on the way up during QE1. Given current Fed security holdings of $4.2 trillion, this would reduce the Fed’s security holdings by about 14% per year once it gets into full swing.
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President Trump’s GDP Forecast
From CNBC:
I really believe it," Trump said in an interview with Fox News. "We're saying 3 (percent) but I say 4 over the next few years. And I say there's no reason we shouldn't be able to get at some point into the future to 5 and above.
How the Federal Reserve controls interest rates
The way in which the Federal Reserve controls the short-term interest rate today is completely different from the way things worked ten years ago. I was looking for a good description of how the current system works and couldn’t find one, so decided to write my own.
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Repealing Dodd-Frank and Basel III
One of the responses to the financial turmoil of 2008 was new legislation and regulation intended to prevent such a disaster from recurring. These measures include the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 and the third international accord from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of 2010-11. But today there are powerful voices seeking to amend or overturn these measures. President Donald Trump said on December 12:
We have to end Dodd-Frank…. The head of the banks, they’re petrified of the regulators….I mean, unless you have 5 time what you want to borrow, they don’t lend you any money. They’re afraid to loan people money and those are the people that should be able to borrow.
And Representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC), Vice Chair of the Financial Services Committee, wrote on January 31:
Agreements like the Basel III Accord … turned into domestic regulations that forced American firms of various sizes to substantially raise their capital requirements, leading to slower growth here in America.
Here I review the motivations for Dodd-Frank and Basel III and some of the proposals to amend or replace them.
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This Makes No Sense
Judy Shelton on currency manipulation.
Back to normal?
A year ago, the Federal Reserve decided to raise its target for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points above the floor of 0-0.25% at which we’d been stuck for 7 years. FOMC members indicated at the time that they were expecting to end 2016 at 1.4%, or four rate hikes during the last year. We started this December at 0.41%, and the first hike of 2016 didn’t come until last week. Now FOMC members say they are expecting to end 2017 at 1.4%, or three more hikes from here during the next year. The January 2018 fed funds futures contract is currently priced at 1.23%, suggesting that the market is buying into two, not three hikes during 2017.
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US Financial Conditions and Emerging Market Stress: The Outlook
From NYT:
…around the globe, the surge in the dollar is provoking financial jitters.
Emerging market countries and corporations that have been binging on cheap dollar debt for more than a decade now face a spike in servicing costs and elevated debt burdens.
Raise the Yuan! Implications for the Treasury Spread
Some back-of-the-envelope calculations: If we get what President Elect Trump says he wants — no depreciation of the yuan — what happens to the Treasury 10 year-3 month spread?