Below consensus, headline m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, and core 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Headline and core m/m annualized inflation in Figures 1 and 2, along with chained, sticky price, trimmed, and PCE.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
FT-IGM December Macroeconomists Survey – Fed Policy, Impending Recession (and More)
Guest Contribution: “The Fed’s swap lines: Narrow circle, broad effect?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California).
Not a recession … yet
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the historical average (3.1%), and is a welcome sequel to the two quarters of falling GDP with which we started the year.
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Guest Contribution: “Has the Fed Pivoted Too Far?”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Market Expectations for Fed Funds Target, pre- & post-August CPI Release
From CME FedWatch app, in the wake of the CPI surprise.
When Lacking Policy Proposals, Attack Diversity
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Fell Behind the Curve by Not Following its Own Policy Rules”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
One Year Treasurys and One Year Forwards
Interest rates still expected to rise, but at slower pace:
Miscalculating potential GDP
How did the Fed get this so wrong?
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