The world economy still “in a precarious state”. The comprehensive analysis, written by the team headed by Ayhan Kose, is here.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Guest Contribution: “The Fed is Back on the Curve”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Fed Funds Trajectory as Viewed by the Market
According to the CME, peak Fed funds will be achieved tomorrow. So… “25 and done”…
Credit Easing/Tightening/Easing/? 2007-2023
Prepping for monetary policy lecture in Monday’s lecture, here’s the Cleveland Fed’s picture of Fed assets over time.
FT-IGM March Survey – Expectations Post-SVB
Here’s the growth path according to the FT-IGM survey that closed March 16th, about a week after the unfolding of events surrounding SVB.
Market Implied Fed Funds Path, Post-FOMC
Up relative to yesterday (or the 19th), as expected given Powell’s statement. However, still way down relative to March 8th.
Yields, Spreads, and Uncertainty/Risk
Term spreads rising slightly, yields (nominal, real) down, and risk measures up.
Implied Fed funds Peak – from September to May
Using CME futures, from 1:30CT today:
Inflation Surprise Barely Moves Expected Fed Funds Path
M/M core CPI inflation surprised on the upside (0.5 ppts vs. 0.4 ppts Bloomberg consensus) while m/m headline at consensus. The path of the Fed funds as indicated by futures barely budged.
Guest Contribution: “Some Thoughts on SVB”
Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison.