Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Fed Funds Trajectory as Viewed by the Market
According to the CME, peak Fed funds will be achieved tomorrow. So… “25 and done”…
Credit Easing/Tightening/Easing/? 2007-2023
Prepping for monetary policy lecture in Monday’s lecture, here’s the Cleveland Fed’s picture of Fed assets over time.
FT-IGM March Survey – Expectations Post-SVB
Here’s the growth path according to the FT-IGM survey that closed March 16th, about a week after the unfolding of events surrounding SVB.
Market Implied Fed Funds Path, Post-FOMC
Up relative to yesterday (or the 19th), as expected given Powell’s statement. However, still way down relative to March 8th.
Yields, Spreads, and Uncertainty/Risk
Term spreads rising slightly, yields (nominal, real) down, and risk measures up.
Implied Fed funds Peak – from September to May
Using CME futures, from 1:30CT today:
Inflation Surprise Barely Moves Expected Fed Funds Path
M/M core CPI inflation surprised on the upside (0.5 ppts vs. 0.4 ppts Bloomberg consensus) while m/m headline at consensus. The path of the Fed funds as indicated by futures barely budged.
Guest Contribution: “Some Thoughts on SVB”
Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Is Following the Taylor Rule”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.