Up relative to yesterday (or the 19th), as expected given Powell’s statement. However, still way down relative to March 8th.
Category Archives: Federal Reserve
Yields, Spreads, and Uncertainty/Risk
Term spreads rising slightly, yields (nominal, real) down, and risk measures up.
Implied Fed funds Peak – from September to May
Using CME futures, from 1:30CT today:
Inflation Surprise Barely Moves Expected Fed Funds Path
M/M core CPI inflation surprised on the upside (0.5 ppts vs. 0.4 ppts Bloomberg consensus) while m/m headline at consensus. The path of the Fed funds as indicated by futures barely budged.
Guest Contribution: “Some Thoughts on SVB”
Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Is Following the Taylor Rule”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Instructional Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
For Some People, There’s a Single Solution to Every Problem
Ron Paul, on ending the conflict in the Ukraine. From CounterCurrents:
Fed hasn’t stopped GDP from growing
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.9% annual rate in the third quarter. That makes two quarters in a row with values close to the historical average, a welcome relief from the modestly negative growth rates with which we started last year.
Continue reading
Party Affiliations of Fed Economists and Purported Political Homogeneity
From an Independent Review article by Emre Kuvvet:
Market Expectations on Fed funds, Spreads, Inflation post-CPI Release
Lower on Fed funds at February meeting. Don’t see much movement on spreads, despite talk of a pivot, and the possibility of a soft landing.