Mixed signals this week leave Bernanke still needing to earn his pay.
Category Archives: financial markets
How Strong Is (Was) the Dollar?
An alternative view on the dollar’s strength and trend over time.
And they all lived happily ever after
Can high-flying stocks be reconciled with an inverted yield curve? David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, via Felix Salmon and Business Week thinks “it is highly doubtful that both asset classes can be getting the story right.” But here’s one scenario under which both markets in fact might be telling the same story.
Amaranth hedge fund losses
How in the world did hedge fund Amaranth Advisors manage to lose $6 billion in September on natural gas trading?
How Mobile Is Capital Internationally?
The issue of international capital mobility comes up time and time again. There is the worry of capital and associated production capacity moving abroad to China for lower wage rates, and if not to China, to the rest of the world to escape environmental regulations or to avoid corporate taxation. So how mobile is capital?
The yield curve: Mid-August 2006
What to make of the newest inversion?
A pause it shall be
The last month has been something of a cliffhanger for Fed watchers. But today the market seemed to make up its mind.
Reading the yield curve
What are the implications of the current shape of the yield curve?
Out of sample prediction of the euro, pound and CAD
Once more unto the breach.
One picture from the 2005 International Investment Position release (and one from the NIPA)
Amid all the relief (see here and — kind of — here) over the improvement in the U.S. net international investment position (NIIP) despite the record current account deficit, the trend in one ratio was unremarked upon — namely the ratio of U.S. Government securities held by non-residents, divided by GDP.