Core CPI surprises (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) on the upside, while headline at consensus.
Category Archives: inflation
Wisconsin: AFP Notes Costs Are Up, Ignores Wages and Salaries Are Up
From the Americans for Prosperity-Wisconsin:
In the last four years, Biden’s reckless spending has driven the national debt past $34 trillion – more than $258,000 of debt per household – and Americans’ purchasing power has declined as families have seen the prices of goods and services rise much faster than their income. Prices are now 17.9% higher and the average household is paying over $11,400 more each year just to maintain the same quality of life as when Biden took office.
Real Wage Growth, thru January 2024
From BLS today:
Guest Contribution: “Six Explanations for Misperceptions Regarding the Strong Economy”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Exchange Rate Pass Through into Import Prices, CPI
Justin Ho of Marketplace discussed the implications of the import/export price release Thursday. My view was that pass through into import prices was low in the short run, and even in the long run was not very large, while pass through into the broader price index was unlikely to be large. Not sure I was alone in this view, but here’re my thoughts.
Inflation: January 2024
CPI comes in above consensus, on both headline and core. Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) has a slight uptick.
Inflation Expectations Down
Forecast errors from end of last year are essentially zero.
Why I Don’t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation
From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024):
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rules, and Futures Markets”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.
ZeroHedge Goes Adaptive Expectations
Imagine my surprise when I see a statement “rates are now barely positive according to all official inflation and rate data” in an article titled “Will the Fed Elect Biden?” and the accompanying graph: