Per Eeckhout (2023), actuals for CPI and PPI, and nowcast for PCE, headline and core.
Category Archives: inflation
Inflation Surprise!
Here’s a graphic depiction of the extent of the surprise, in levels, relative to Bloomberg Consensus and Cleveland Fed nowcasts.
Explaining the 2022-23 Disinflation Out-of-Sample
In tomorrow’s lecture on the Phillips Curve and the recent inflation surge for Econ 442, I ask whether a modifed Blanchard-Cerutti-Summers (2015) Phillips Curve specification can predict the disinflation. Answer: Yes.
Measuring Fed Inflation Credibility
What do households (not economists) think inflation will be in three years? I use the deviation of forecast from target as a proxy measure for credibility regarding inflation.
WaPo: “In Wisconsin, a vote for Biden or Trump could come down to grocery prices”
That article prompted me to wondered whether Wisconsin’s grocery prices had moved up faster than the Nation’s. They have!
Is the Fed Looking at FAIT? If so, What Would It Imply?
A reader takes issue with my post showing y/y and instantaneous core PCE deflator versus 2% target, noting (correctly) that as of 2020, the Fed’s new monetary strategy incorporates Flexible Average Inflation Targetting (FAIT). While I might have missed it, I don’t recall how one should operationalize FAIT in terms of graphs and rates of reversion to trend lines. The reader gives no guidance, merely a criticism, so I will update what I’ve posted before.
Immigration 2021-23: Supply and Demand Shock
Or, why has the US done so well. Part of it’s immigration. From Goldman Sachs “Upgrading Our GDP and Payrolls Forecasts to Reflect Elevated Immigration (Walker)” released yesterday:
How Close to Target?
Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, but many use the core PCE as a proxy. I show what the data indicate, including the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast as of 3/14 for February.
“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today.
More on r*
From BIS Quarterly Review, article by G. Benigno, B. Hoffmann, G. Nuno Barrau, and D. Sandri: