Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
Category Archives: international
Guest Contribution: “The Business cycle and Economic Policy Uncertainty in France”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Chinn & Ito: “Current account dynamics and saving-investment nexus in a changing and uncertain world”
Open access until 21 January 2025 for the paper in JIMF, paper coauthored with Hiro Ito:
Ruble Devaluation Giveth and Devaluation Taketh Away
Consider the ruble/yuan exchange rate.
Central Bank of Russia Telegram Account: “Everything will be fine.”
I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”.
The Ruble under Pressure
From Politico:
The ruble tumbled on Wednesday to its lowest level in over two years, as a mix of low oil prices, new sanctions against Russian businesses and burgeoning government spending on its war effort put ever-greater strain on the Russian economy.
The central bank reacted by suspending currency purchases for the rest of this year. That will restrict the supply of rubles and should support the exchange rate accordingly.
Russia: Policy Rate at 21%, Official Inflation Rate at 10% (m/m annualized)
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.
Further Dollar Appreciation: Implications
What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor rule reaction function, when the currency is a safe haven asset?
