Impact on a typical family:
Source: Brendan Duke, CAP.
Category Archives: international
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
GDP Nowcasts/Tracking Down: What Does This Mean?
Never just look the headline number. The “why’s” matter. GDPNow down from 3.3% q/q AR to 2.8%, while GS tracking at 3.0%
Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area, as of 10/4/2024
The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more recent indicators suggest (a partial survey)?
Dollar Share of World FX Reserves (thru Q2)
From the IMF (9/27/2024):
Guest Contribution: “Latin America’s Non-Linear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affiliated with.
Chinn and Irwin: “International Economics” (f’coming Cambridge Univ Press)
Are you teaching international economics next spring? Or just want to learn more about the field? Consider adopting/purchasing this new textbook, by myself and Douglas Irwin (available around December 2024, from Cambridge University Press).
The Net Petroleum Balance
In real dollars:
Choi, Dang, Kirpalani, Perez on “Exorbitant privilege and the sustainability of US public debt”
From the paper abstract:
The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings
Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2021 period. This dataset was used in Ito and McCauley (2020), Chinn, Ito and McCauley (2022), and Chinn, Ito and Frankel (2024).