Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Open access until 21 January 2025 for the paper in JIMF, paper coauthored with Hiro Ito:
Consider the ruble/yuan exchange rate.
I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”.
From Politico:
The ruble tumbled on Wednesday to its lowest level in over two years, as a mix of low oil prices, new sanctions against Russian businesses and burgeoning government spending on its war effort put ever-greater strain on the Russian economy.
The central bank reacted by suspending currency purchases for the rest of this year. That will restrict the supply of rubles and should support the exchange rate accordingly.
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.
What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor rule reaction function, when the currency is a safe haven asset?
By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch
A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the last three years with stark policy reversals. This is an expanded version of an op-ed published in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
