Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Andrés Fernández (IDB), Michael W. Klein (Tufts), Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins Univ.), Martin Schindler (IMF and JVI) and Martín Uribe (Columbia Univ.). This post is based upon this paper. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the InterAmerican Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Joint Vienna Institute, their Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Category Archives: international
Spreads and Recession Watch, March 2016
Five Thirty Eight warns us to prepare for a (not likely imminent) recession; Wall Street Journal‘s Real Time Economics cautions “All Clear on Recession Risk? Not Yet”, even if the latest employment indicate continued growth. Time to review market indicators of the outlook.
“Is Currency Devaluation Overrated?”
That’s the title of a symposium in the current issue of The International Economy. Martin Feldstein, Ted Truman, Joe Gagnon, Bill Cline, Mohamed El-Erian, Cathy Mann, and José de Gregorio (among many others) contribute.
Guest Contribution: “How to Mitigate Adverse Spillovers from BRICS? Role of Policies”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Raju Huidrom, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, and Lei Sandy Ye, all of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank, its Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Guest Contribution: “Argentina: A Big Change with Problematic Initial Conditions”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Maria Muniagurria, faculty member in Economics at the University of Wisconsin – Madison.
A little over two months ago, Mauricio Macri began his tenure as president after his coalition of center-right parties prevailed over the ruling party’s candidate by a small margin.
The RMB’s Future: Four Views
At the last ASSA meetings in San Francisco, I participated in a Society for the Study of Emerging Markets panel entitled “Can the Chinese Renminbi Rule?: If So, How and When?”
Spreads and Recession Watch
Since we’re talking recession [0], it’s of interest to see what market indicators are saying, for the US and for the world. First, the term spread for the US:
The Next Global Recession: Made in China?
The portents from China are not good. There are ominously titled news articles aplenty; the WSJ asked in August if a global recession is brewing in China. Wonkblog asks How China could trigger a global crisis:
When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy.
Politico on the 2016 Economic Outlook
Provocatively titled “Could the Economy Tank in 2016?”:
Some International Finance at ASSA
Full Allied Social Sciences Association program, with links to some papers, here.