Since we’re talking recession [0], it’s of interest to see what market indicators are saying, for the US and for the world. First, the term spread for the US:
Category Archives: international
The Next Global Recession: Made in China?
The portents from China are not good. There are ominously titled news articles aplenty; the WSJ asked in August if a global recession is brewing in China. Wonkblog asks How China could trigger a global crisis:
When China sneezes, the rest of the world might not catch a cold, but it does feel bad for a couple of days. The question, though, is whether China is sicker than it seems and how contagious that would be for the global economy.
Politico on the 2016 Economic Outlook
Provocatively titled “Could the Economy Tank in 2016?”:
Some International Finance at ASSA
Full Allied Social Sciences Association program, with links to some papers, here.
Guest Contribution: “Emerging Markets Facing Higher U.S. Interest Rates: Smooth Sailing or Perfect Storm?”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Carlos Arteta, M. Ayhan Kose, Franziska Ohnsorge, Marc Stocker, and Lei Sandy Ye, all of the World Bank. This blog represents the views of the authors and does not necessarily represent World Bank Group views or policy.
Guest Contribution: “U.S. Monetary Expectations and Emerging Market Debt Flows”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest post written by Eric Fischer, PhD candidate at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
Estimating Shock Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
We propose a new focus: incorporating the underlying shocks that cause exchange rate fluctuations when evaluating how these fluctuations ‘pass through’ into import and consumer prices.
The RMB in the SDR: What Does It Mean for RMB Internationalization?
The IMF staff has now determined the Renminbi should be included in the IMF’s unit of account, the Special Drawing Right (SDR). Reviews of the decision are covered here and here. But as the articles note, there is a long ways to go before the RMB is internationalized so as to rival the dollar or euro.
Commodity prices and exchange rates
The dramatic decline in the prices of a number of commodities over the last 16 months must have a common factor. One variable that seems to be quite important is the exchange rate.
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Guest Contribution: “Games Countries Play”
Today we have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of a column that appeared in Project Syndicate.