Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Michael Wagner (Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Wisconsin – Madison).
Category Archives: politics
Guest Contribution: “Elections and Devaluations”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. He thanks Sohaib Nasim for research assistance.
Polls, Sentiment, Prediction Markets
It’s of some interest to see how polls and prediction markets are viewing the presidential race, and how this links with economic sentiment.
“Prosperity: Crises, Debt & the Future of American Economic Policy”
That’s the name of the economic session at the La Follette Forum on American Power, Prosperity and Democracy. A video of this panel is available through Youtube. Here are some recounting and thoughts on the panel discussion.
Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Really This Low in Hong Kong?
The Economic Policy Uncertainty index, calculated using the Baker, Bloom and Davis methodology:
Stop the Uncertainty!
The economic policy uncertainty, that is (With apologies to Susan Powter). Regardless of where you are on the econo-political spectrum, you should want economic policy uncertainty to be reduced. Remember all those conservative voices in the post-Global Financial Crisis saying policy uncertainty was slowing the economic recovery? Well, today is an opportunity to return considered, coherent, economic policymaking and trade negotiations.
Recalling the Beginning of the Lost Decades
Lehman Brothers, the global financial crisis and ensuing great recession, plus ten.
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Polling Data Analysis with Stephen Moore
Not lying so much as willfully misleading.
I had the misfortune to watch Stephen Moore debating approval ratings for Trump by African Americans. From RawStory:
…you have to look at [Trump’s] record when it comes to civil rights not necessarily what he said or is alleged to have said,” Moore answered. “Brooke, if this man is a racist, why is it that his approval rating, among blacks, has increased while he has been president? It’s because of his record, not what he says.”
Repealing Dodd-Frank and Basel III
One of the responses to the financial turmoil of 2008 was new legislation and regulation intended to prevent such a disaster from recurring. These measures include the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 and the third international accord from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of 2010-11. But today there are powerful voices seeking to amend or overturn these measures. President Donald Trump said on December 12:
We have to end Dodd-Frank…. The head of the banks, they’re petrified of the regulators….I mean, unless you have 5 time what you want to borrow, they don’t lend you any money. They’re afraid to loan people money and those are the people that should be able to borrow.
And Representative Patrick McHenry (R-NC), Vice Chair of the Financial Services Committee, wrote on January 31:
Agreements like the Basel III Accord … turned into domestic regulations that forced American firms of various sizes to substantially raise their capital requirements, leading to slower growth here in America.
Here I review the motivations for Dodd-Frank and Basel III and some of the proposals to amend or replace them.
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Mr. Trump and the markets
I was astounded not only by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election but also by the response of financial markets.
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