Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which means the surprise is about one standard deviation.
Category Archives: recession
Term Spreads in Advanced Economies One Year Ago, and Conditions Today
A year ago, Laurent Ferrara and I documented the explanatory power of the term spread for recessions across countries. Here’re the 10yr-3mo spreads in November 2023, and Q/Q GDP growth rates for 2024Q3.
A Manufacturing Recession?
Once again, Heritage’s EJ Antoni speaks (on Fox) about a manufacturing recession, focusing on employment. I’ll just point out that, according to the most relevant indicator, the manufacturing sector hasn’t been in a downturn for two years.
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators as of the Year’s Start
The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y):
Year End Disinversion: Bull or Bear Steepening?
With December 31 data, here’s the picture of term spreads:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
Canada and Recession
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could impart enough uncertainty to throw the country into recession.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Guest Contribution: “The Business cycle and Economic Policy Uncertainty in France”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024
Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).