Once again, Heritage’s EJ Antoni speaks (on Fox) about a manufacturing recession, focusing on employment. I’ll just point out that, according to the most relevant indicator, the manufacturing sector hasn’t been in a downturn for two years.
Category Archives: recession
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators as of the Year’s Start
The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y):
Year End Disinversion: Bull or Bear Steepening?
With December 31 data, here’s the picture of term spreads:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below.
Canada and Recession
Notice that I don’t say in or out of recession. Nonetheless, with slow growth (and per capita growth negative), there’s plenty of discussion (e.g., here today). And Trump’s threats of tariffs — even if they don’t come through — could impart enough uncertainty to throw the country into recession.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-December
Industrial production -0.9% vs. +0.1% consensus (m/m).Here are some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Guest Contribution: “The Business cycle and Economic Policy Uncertainty in France”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee).
Business Cycle Indicators – Employment for November 2024
Here are some key indicators followed by NBER’s BCDC, including employment for November (227K vs. 202K consensus, 194K vs. 160K consensus, for NFP, and private NFP respectively).
DiMartino Booth: “We know many government statisticians are very left leaning in nature…”
(Or, ” I have in my hand fifty-seven cases of individuals…”) At 3:44 into this video, this Ms. DiMartino Booth makes this assertion, claiming this is the reason we haven’t seen a recession in the data pre-election.
A Contrarian View on Recession Probabilities: Are We Out of the Woods?
As I have observed before, the explanation for why we have not yet seen a recession’s onset in the data yet could be one of the following: (1) the model based on historical correlations is no longer applicable (DGP has changed), (2) we were using the wrong model, (3) the recession is yet to come, but has not yet shown up in the data. In addition, it could be the model was right, and in a probabilistic world, there’s never a sure thing.