As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … -0.6% (as of 2/26 close):
Category Archives: recession
No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation) [graph corrected!]
And CBO’s January projection:
Anthony Diercks, Daniel Soques and Jing Cynthia Wu: “Perfect Recession Indicators”
From the abstract to the paper:
NBER BCDC and Alternative Business Cycle Indicators for January
In the first set, industrial production continues to rise (as did employment). In the second set, while civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept rose, manufacturing output flat, and real retails sales fell noticeably.
Business Cycle Indicators – Where’s that Recession?
Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP. Seven days ago , DiMartino Booth at 13:50, says it started in Spring/Summer 2024. Heritage’s EJ Antoni says it started in August. Data for most series through December.
Forecasts: WSJ vs. CBO vs. Biden Troika vs. IMF
A comparison:
“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”
That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January
Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed by the NBER BCDC:
Employment in December
Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which means the surprise is about one standard deviation.
Term Spreads in Advanced Economies One Year Ago, and Conditions Today
A year ago, Laurent Ferrara and I documented the explanatory power of the term spread for recessions across countries. Here’re the 10yr-3mo spreads in November 2023, and Q/Q GDP growth rates for 2024Q3.