There aren’t many measures of euro area wide economic activity at higher than monthly frequency, to my knowledge. One series is the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, based upon big data and machine learning, discussed here. VoxEU post here. This measure shows deceleration in the week through 9/17.
Category Archives: recession
Weekly Economic Activity through September 17th
Year-on-year, activity growth is still growing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a few days ago (September 17th):
Recession on the Horizon?
IGM-FTmid -September survey:
US, Euro Area and China GDP over the Pandemic and Recovery
Following up on the last post, here is a graph of three major economies.
World Bank: “Is a Global Recession Imminent?”
A Note by Justin Damien Guénette, M. Ayhan Kose, and Naotaka Sugawara.
Weekly Economic Activity through September 10th
Year-on-year, activity still seems to be increasing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a week ago (September 10th):
Business Cycle Indicators Reported as of Mid-September
With August industrial production coming in below consensus (m/m -0.2% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg), we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Weekly Indicators of Economic Activity through September 3rd
Year-on-year, activity still seems to be increasing. Shown below are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock (NY Fed) WEI, and the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, and the Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for the US, for data up to a week ago (September 3rd):
Business Cycle Indicators as of 9/3: On the Upswing Again (If They Were Ever in a Downswing)
In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases:
Guest Contribution: “Forecasting Real Activity using Cross-Sectoral Stock Market Information”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Arthur Stalla Bourdillon, economist at the Banque de France. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Banque de France, Eurosystem or NBER.