Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Category Archives: recession
The “… Recession of H1 2022”? (Part III)
Guest Contribution: “Global Recession Is Not Inevitable”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This post is part of a symposium at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Indicators, thru August 20
Here are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (NY Fed) and the OECD Weekly Tracker, covering data through August 20.
Bank Lending, thru Aug. 17
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.
GDP, GDO, GDP+, Hours and Income
Following up on Friday’s post (“When is a recession not a recession?”) by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Samad Sarferaz, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden , here’s a picture in levels of some of the alternative GDP measures, along with two key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (aggregate hours, personal income excluding transfers), at the quarterly frequency.
The “recession…of H1 2022”? (Part II)
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of July?
CFNAI edition – from Chicago Fed today:
Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in July
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.27 in July, up from –0.25 in June.
Bank Loan Growth – Latest Available
From Torsten Slok’s “Recession Watch” chartpack today:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-August 2022
Industrial production and manufacturing production exceeded consensus (0.6% vs. 0.3%, 0.7% vs. 0.2%, respectively) yielding the following graph of key indicators.