In the wake of the employment situation and monthly GDP (IHS Markit) releases:
Category Archives: recession
Guest Contribution: “Forecasting Real Activity using Cross-Sectoral Stock Market Information”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Arthur Stalla Bourdillon, economist at the Banque de France. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Banque de France, Eurosystem or NBER.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Workers Gap”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
The “… Recession of H1 2022”? (Part III)
Guest Contribution: “Global Recession Is Not Inevitable”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This post is part of a symposium at Project Syndicate.
Weekly Economic Indicators, thru August 20
Here are the Lewis-Mertens-Stock Weekly Economic Index (NY Fed) and the OECD Weekly Tracker, covering data through August 20.
Bank Lending, thru Aug. 17
Or, a post for Steven Kopits.
GDP, GDO, GDP+, Hours and Income
Following up on Friday’s post (“When is a recession not a recession?”) by Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, Samad Sarferaz, Jan-Egbert Sturm and Simon van Norden , here’s a picture in levels of some of the alternative GDP measures, along with two key variables followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (aggregate hours, personal income excluding transfers), at the quarterly frequency.
The “recession…of H1 2022”? (Part II)
So You Think We’re In a Recession as of July?
CFNAI edition – from Chicago Fed today:
Index Points to a Pickup in Economic Growth in July
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was +0.27 in July, up from –0.25 in June.