Industrial and manufacturing production both at 0.4% m/m growth, above consensus (0.1% and 0.2%, respectively) in September, showing resumed growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.
Category Archives: recession
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity thru 10/8
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Worker Gap – Updated”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Business Cycle Indicators at October’s Start
With September IHS-Markit (Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
GDPNow Q3 at 2.4% SAAR
Atlanta Fed upped its nowcast for Q3 from 0.3%, on the basis of advanced international data, and annual benchmark GDP numbers:
Business Cycle Indicators at the September’s End
With August nominal consumption coming in above consensus (m/m +0.4% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg), and consumption and personal income continuing to rise, we have the following picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Weekly Economic Activity through 9/24
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
GDP Level Up, GDO Down and Trending Sideways
The annual benchmark revision (release) made substantial changes to the level of reported GDP — but not to the growth rate in 2022H1– while GDO is revised slightly down as GDI is revised downward. Final sales to private domestic purchasers, a measure of domestic demand, revised up and rises.
Yield Curve Inversions in the UK
Recession coming? Or is it already here? Here’s a picture of the UK yield curve as of today, a month ago and 6 months ago:
Messages from the Market
One term spread steepens sharply; only one spread has actually inverted. The five year inflation breakeven is falling. And risk is rising.