CBO released its projections for GDP under current law, and potential GDP yesterday.
Category Archives: recession
The Economy at Trump’s End
In recovery (as Jim noted using GDP), but not recovered. And maybe even declining for certain key indicators.
The COVID recession is over
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.0% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019, and follows a 28.8% logarithmic annual growth rate seen in Q3.
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OECD Weekly Tracker of Economic Activity
Real time estimates of GDP based on Google Trends and machine learning for OECD and G-20 countries, here. Here’s the current US GDP nowcast:
“Will Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus overheat the American economy?”
That’s the title of a new article in the Economist:
There are three main reasons to suspect overheating might be on the cards: emerging evidence that the downturn may prove temporary; generous stimulus; and the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy strategy.
Downside Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators as of January 8th
Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down 100 thousand, contra +81 Bloomberg consensus, even worse than GS and DB.
Business Cycle Indicators, January 4th
With the release of the IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, key indicators tracked by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) continue to show mixed behavior. Monthly GDP declined in November (joining personal income ex.-transfers in decline):
Risks of a Double Dip Rising? [updated]
[Original post, 12/3 5pm Pacific – updates graph for NFP, text in green]
That’s the message all around: The Hill “Slowing job growth raises fears of double-dip recession” (see also this), a CNN article has subheading “Double-dip recession fears”, Fortune has “TIAA CEO Roger Ferguson thinks we could be headed for a ‘double-dip recession'”, while CNBC “Virus surge is leading to a double-dip recession and dollar crash, economist Stephen Roach warns”.
Stephen Moore: “Trump’s super recovery”
Title of an article a few days ago:
Business Cycle Indicators, November 17
With October industrial production reported today, we have this picture of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee‘s key indicators: