Baseline scenario is for continued — albeit moderating growth — at least according to the WSJ November survey. However, the reality of rapidly ascending Covid-19 caseload, hospitalization, and fatality rates may force a quick rethink. From The Hill today:
Category Archives: recession
The Economic Outlook – WSJ November Survey
No acceleration in growth rates, but GDP level higher relative to October survey; few see a true “V”, or a true “W”.
The Recovery: Reverse Radical or W?
IHS-Markit released estimates for monthly GDP a couple days ago. Here’s the contours of the recovery so far — and it’s not a “V”.
Business Cycle Indicators, October 30th
With the release of personal income and sales figures today, we see the continued deceleration in economic activity continues, according to some key indicators noted by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC).
Record-breaking increase in GDP
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 33.1% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the largest change ever recorded, even bigger than the -31.4% annual rate now reported for 2020:Q2. What do those numbers tell us?
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Fiscal Policy Efficacy in Times of Covid
Just in time for the module on fiscal policy in my macro policy course, multipliers in a time of Covid-19. From a CBO working paper by Seliski, Betz, Chen, Demirel, Lee, and Nelson, “Key Methods That CBO Used to Estimate the Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output”.
Wall Street vs. Academics on Q3 and Q4
Given apparent gridlock in Washington – that is the gap between the administration and Senate Republicans on phase 4 recovery package – Wall Street economists and academics see the recovery somewhat differently. From the Initiative on Global Markets/FiveThirtyEight Covid panel round 10 survey (released October 12).
This Time Was Not Different
Revising notes on recession prediction for my course, I find the 10yr-3mo spread has preceded 7 of the last 8 recessions (8 if the 14 bps near inversion of mid-1989). And back in June 2019, recession seemed not unlikely.
Wisconsin Q2 GDP
Wisconsin GDP declined by 32.6% (SAAR) in 2020Q2, compared to 31.4% for the US. BEA’s release today notes Wisconsin’s Q/Q growth in Q2 ranked 35th.
Business Cycle Indicators as of October 2
Nonfarm payroll employment under consensus, confirms the slowdown: