The survey results are out, and once again, the outlook improves.
Category Archives: recession
Proxy Measures for the Cyclical Component of GDP
The output gap is a key concept in macro. Students in my courses have asked about the characteristics of some of the proxies. Here are some representative examples.
The American Rescue Plan – GDP Impact Assessed
Goldman Sachs (Phillips/Briggs/Mericle, 3/13) document some aspects of the American Rescue Plan, signed into law by President Biden.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators as of 5 March
The positive surprise in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment — 379K vs Bloomberg consensus of 182K — was good news. However, it’s important to place this in context. NFP is 9.5 million lower (i.e., 6.2% lower) than the NBER peak in February 2020. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Business Cycle Indicators as of 3 March
The goods production side of the economy continues to recover, and monthly GDP comes close to October 2010 levels. Nonfarm payroll employment as implied by the Bloomberg survey is for a slight increase of 182K. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Business Cycle Indicators as of 26 February: Consumption Rebound
The goods production side of the economy continues to recover, consumption jumps, while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Business Cycle Indicators as of 17 February
The goods production side of the economy continues to recover while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Improving Economic Prospects
As measured by the February WSJ survey. Even then, mean forecast GDP — presumably conditioned on additional government spending and tax cuts — does not hit potential GDP until beginning of 2022.
The Employment Deceleration, and Business Cycle Indicators
Employment in early January continues to decelerate to near standstill (BLS), as I suggested in November would happen if the US did not implement a coherent plan to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.
The American Rescue Plan Assessed
I talked through some issues regarding the competing recovery plans in this Wisconsin Public Radio interview. Here are some graphs to buttress my point that the Senate Republican plan is underpowered.