On the eve of the primary votes in Wisconsin, where protectionists are set to make some inroads, it’s of interest to consider the state’s reliance on exports — including those to China (a target of both Senator Sanders and Mr. Trump) and Mexico [1].
Category Archives: Trade Policy
US-China Trade Policies: the Nuclear — and Near-nuclear — Options
Substantial attention has been devoted to the disasterous effects of implementing a Donald Trump agenda of imposing 45% tariffs on imports of goods from China. To gain some perspective, consider the implications for prices of goods imported from China if such a tariff were imposed (and a large country assumption used, so that only half of the tariff increase manifested in increased prices).
Figure 1: Price of Chinese commodity imports, 2003M12=100, with 2016M03 values at 2016M02 values (bold blue), and a 22.5% higher price level as of 2017M02 assuming the half of incidence falls on the US (red). Light green shaded area denotes projection period. Vertical axis is logarithmic. Source: BLS, and author’s calculations.
Obviously, drop the large country assumption, and the resulting price increase can be up to 45%.
Trade Policy Parallels
Surely, it’s occurred to others, but I find the following comparison of trade policy stances quite remarkable.
Guest Contribution: “Text of Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement Now Online”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
I have written a few columns (e.g. “Critics Should Keep an Open Mind,” The Guardian, Oct. 11, 2015) and posts ([1] [2]) this year supportive of TPP. Commentators on my column and critics of TPP more generally have expressed great eagerness to know when and how they could read the full legal text of the agreement. The full text is now available.
Many skeptics seem confident in their ability to understand the significance of the detailed legal language. I am less confident of that myself, not being a lawyer. There is also to be a USTR site with user-friendly text.
This post written by Jeffrey Frankel.
Guest Contribution: “Migration, “Free” Trade and China in History”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Robert J. Schwendinger, former Executive Director of the Maritime Humanities Center of the San Francisco Bay Region, and author of the newly republished volume Ocean of Bitter Dreams: The Chinese Migration to the United States, 1850-1915 (Long River Press).
Guest Contribution: “TPP Critics’ Nighttime Fears Fade by Light of Day”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
“The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?”
This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.
The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.
“Answering the TPA Critics Head-On”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Guest Contribution: “New Improved Trade Agreements”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of an earlier column at Project Syndicate.
Global Economic Prospects on Fiscal Policy, Oil Prices, and the Trade Slowdown
Update: The World Bank’s forecasts are also now out, summarized here. Russia is forecasted to hurtle into a deep recession.
Two chapters from the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects are out.