Everyday prices nowcasted to outstripping measured CPI and subindices:
Headline CPI Inflation at Consensus, Real Wages Continue to Be Eroded
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Slowdown in Australia
Given positive Q1 GDP growth (albeit with downside surprise of 0.3% vs 0.5% q/q Bloomberg consensus, vs. 0.4% Melbourne Institute nowcast), there’s been a substantial amount of commentary regarding elevated recession risks [1] [2]. I find this surprising as the IMF’s April WEO projected 2% y/y growth for 2026 — of course conditional on a baseline that assumed eventually decreasing oil prices. On June 3, OECD projected 1.9%, while the latest Economist Intelligence Unit forecast is 1.6%. Eyeballing the RBA forecast as of June 2, it seems like their forecast is about 1.3%, still not negative growth.
First, consider GDP:
Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: Canada
Friday release of May employment (labor force survey):
Trump in Chippewa Falls: Promising Input Price Declines to Farmers
From WisPolitics:
“Sustainable” Employment Growth Is Only at +73K
At least according to EJ Antoni’s definition, in his critique of employment growth under the Biden administration:
gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healthcare sector [employment growth].. it’s all tax-payer funded, and it’s not at all sustainable.
Yield Curve Steepening: Expected Inflation vs. Real Rates (or Something Else)
Big jumps in yields; as shown at the five year maturity, the move is evident in both nominal and real yields:
Employment and Wages: Alternative Measures
Nonfarm payroll employment upside surprise from CES. CPS indicates something less positive, as does ADP, trendwise.
Large Upside NFP Employment Surprise and Business Cycle Indicators
May NFP growth at +172K outpaces +85K Bloomberg consensus (87K surprise vs. 53K Mean Absolute Revision goinng from 1st-3rd release in 2025), on top of upward revisions in April and March.
“Technical Recession” Lessons of 2022 US for 2026 Canada
Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a “technical recession” [1], even though it’s clear most mainstream economists in Canada fail to read much more into the event. I post a figure from 9 months ago, recapping the the 2024 episode in the US.
Proposing Section 301 Sanctions on… the World (or Most of It)
From Bloomberg: