Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50.
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
17 Replies
Category Archives: Uncategorized
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25:
Prediction Markets, FWIW
Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls.
Son of ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy”
Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats:
“Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,
@mises , for highlighting a recent paper @profstonge and I wrote that explains how inflation has been greatly underestimated – read the article by @RonPaul here:
https://t.co/cVroe5QwCT
This plane has landed safely
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s close to the long-run historical average of 3.1%. With inflation coming down, I think we now can declare that the Fed has achieved the admirable but difficult objective of a “soft landing” — bringing inflation down without tipping the U.S. into recession.
Continue reading
Steven Kamin & Benedict Clements: “The Biden-Harris Macroeconomic Record Is Getting a Bum Rap”
From AEI:
Puerto Rico under Trump
A reminder. Economic indicators, excess fatalities.
Consumer Confidence Surprises on the Upside
108.7 vs. 99.5 (Bloomberg consensus). Is positive economic news percolating into surveys? From the Confidence Board today:
If the Official Inflation Rate Is Correct, the Real Policy Rate In Russia Is Now 12.4%
The Central Bank of Russia today raised the policy rate from 19% to 21%.
September Coincident Indexes
Three month growth rate 2.7% ann’d, 3 month diffusion index at 48.