The 10yr term premium has risen, as has the 5yr TIPS-Trsy breakeven, in the wake of Mr. Trump’s campaign to subjugate the Fed.
Term Premium and Trsy-TIPS Breakeven
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G. Dirk Mateer Asks: “Do We Still Really Need the Bureau of Labor Statistics?”
I’d say “yes”. From RealClearPolitics:
Re-Arranging the Syllabus (Again): Barro-Gordon Moved Up
For the first time in four years, I get to teach a course on the Financial System, which is like a financially focused macro course. But lo and behold, Trump’s actions make me re-focus the course…
Economic Policy Uncertainty Spikes
In the wake of Trump’s letter re: Lisa Cook:
And You Want to Be My Latex Salesman? (cont’d)
From WSJ:
Watch the Term Premium (10yr)
That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s the picture up to yesterday before the letter to Cook, using the NY Fed’s (Adrian, Crump and Moench) model:
Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)
Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus):
Zandi’s Recession Map
From Newsweek today:
Constitutional and Economic Crises: Trump Assaults the Fed’s Independence
This is the best guarantee that cost pressures from tariffs and mass removals will manifest in wage-price spirals, combined with growth reducing economic policy uncertainty — particularly if the Trump administration does not adhere to Supreme Court rulings on this subject.
Non-Essentials, and the Business Cycle
Torsten Slok provides this illuminating picture of discretionary spending (y/y), by category.