GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and GDI.
Alternative Estimates of Output
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A Closer Look at Employment
Transportation and warehousing boomed. Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention).
Employment and Business Cycle Indicators
Continued growth apparent, although NFP employment pertains to first half of April.
Measured EPU on the Rise, Again
Through May 1st:
Monthly Consumption, Personal Income, Mfg/Trade Indus Sales
And other NBER BCDC indicators.
100 Day Marker: Economic Optics Not Great
GDPNow at -1.5% q/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed.
A Timeline for Recession?
Torsten Slok’s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession):
Safe No More? Two Pictures
Prepping slides for macro, found these interesting correlations.
More Nowcasts
As of today:
Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.