Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as are real retail sales in January.
Alternative Business Cycle Indictors
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NBER BCDC Business Cycle Indicators: Employment and Output Continue to Diverge
A slight recasting of outlook:
Downward Moves in Employment Paths: Beware the Population Controls and B/D Model
The new birth/death model has been in for two months; the new population controls were retroactively applied to January (usually, there are no revisions from month to month). NFP miss of 150K vs Bloomberg consensus of +58K.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz?
What’s the betting on closure by March 31? According to Polymarket, it’s 82% right now…
Will Consumer Sentiment Take a Hit?
It’s already quite low:
Betting on US Troops in Iran by Year’s End: 59%
From Polymarket just now:
Betting on Gasoline Prices: $3.50/gal. by Month’s End
Kalshi reports just now:
Oil Prices: Level or Change?
Talking about the Iran war in macro class yesterday, a student asked if the oil price increase seen to date constituted an “oil shock”. I answered, in terms of price increase so far, not yet, and terms of level, oil prices are still fairly low. However, it then occurred to me that there is a intermediate measure, due to Jim Hamilton. First, WTI oil prices:
On Day 5 of War, EPU and GPR Spiked
Somewhat surprisingly, VIX remains relatively low.
Gasoline Prices, 3 March 2026: Thanks, Drumpf!
/s/ owner of internal combustion engine passenger vehicle…