In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel:
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
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Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2% and 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, respectively) but retail sales remain noticeably down from prior peak.
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman (ASU).
Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2 ppts difference). Here’s the implied GDP levels.
The Russian Economy under (More?) Pressure
Economic Policy Uncertainty at Recorded Maximum
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074.
The Four Golfcartmen of the Apocalypse
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check!
Expectations off a Cliff
Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Uncertainty: Does It Matter?
From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.
Why Shouldn’t the Stock Market Be Crashing?
Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys: