Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”
I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising.
As of 2nd release for 2025Q1.
The Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed measure for data through 5/24 is down to 1.88%, down from 2.79% on the week of Trump’s inauguration, down from peak of 3.07%, recording data before “Liberation Day”.
Can’t wait to see May data.
While (UMich) economic sentiment (preliminary) falls.
More accurately, nowcasted using inbound container traffic. Two thirds of Chinese imports (by value) comes by sea freight. And sea freight from China doesn’t seem to be rebounding; from Torsten Slok:
I was at a conference — actually two — in Singapore: the Asian Bureau for Finance and Economic Research annual conference, and the Asian Monetary Policy Forum. In the first, I attended a talk by Steven Davis (Hoover), on “Measuring Policy Uncertainty, Assessing its Consequences”. One slide pretty much summed up my feelings about these times…
Macro impact doesn’t seem large according to Yale Budget Lab, but I can hardly wait to see how much a 50% increase in Ozempic and Wegovy prices will go over with the public.