From Heritage:
What Kind of Macro Model is the Heritage Foundation Using?
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
“At least 3,000 North Korean soldiers now inside Russia, US says”
Headline from CNN.
Why So Glum? Structural Break in Michigan Sentiment?
Ryan Cummings and Ernie Tedeschi have a very interesting article in BriefingBook today which casts new light on the disjuncture between measured sentiment and conventional macroeconomic indicators. Cummings and Tedeschi document how the move to online sampling has altered the characteristics of the University of Michigan Economic Sentiment series.
Eric Hovde: In Recession (and Recession Forecast from Dec 2023) [updated]
Video today.
Big Mac Nation and Recession since 2022
In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4.
September Real Median Household Income Estimated
Above Pre-Covid peak. From Motio Research:
Why So Glum? Sentiment by Partisan Grouping
Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why?
Will Household Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?
Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3.
Whither FEMA under Trump
From Mandate for Leadership, aka Project 2025, page 135: