Eerie silence hangs over Central Coast farm fields in wake of ICE raids
[Originally posted in December 16, 2024] Wages for farm workers and food processing will likely rise, if the past is any guide.
If you are a person of color, I suggest carrying your US passport at all times, given recent detentions of US citizens. I certainly am. After all, “mistakes” occur.
It’s not smaller than this point in 2024:
ICE raids are concentrated in blue states, including CA, NY. These states account for about 22% of national GDP, at nominal prices (CA 14%, NY 8%; slightly larger if using real GDP):
Remember, we’ve got tariff *pauses* (pl.), OBBB, debt ceiling limit, etc. Do you expect the folks in the present administration to have a handle on things?
As noted in this post, the indicator detected a recession in March 2024. It stayed above the threshold thereafter, so the implication is that we are currently the same recession. However, since then, the indicator has decreased substantially, so the recession probability is low.
+139K vs +126K Bloomberg consensus; private NFP +140K vs +110K. Manufacturing employment down 8K vs -1K consensus. But durable manufacturing production workers down -12K.
The Economist asks the question, and says — in part — yes.
As of June 5th, 10yr-3mo reinverts.