With the December release, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Growth Slows
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Private NFP Change below Consensus, Previous Revisions Change Trajectory
Change in private NFP +37K < +64KÂ Bloomberg consensus, previous months revised down 121K.
“11th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance”
Here’s the call for papers — from my experience, a great event for exchanging ideas and findings about international finance/open economy macro, this year taking place on April 10th.
ADP Implied Private NFP, Philly Fed Early Benchmark, etc.
In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP:
ADP Private NFP Employment below Consensus, Large Firm Flat, Mfg Down
Briefly:
Nowcasting Core GDP
Further deceleration.
Auto Loans Further Deteriorate
Year-on-Year, through November. From Fitch:
Russian GDP in Question
Official statistics suggest the country is below recent business cycle peak.
Six Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
Early Benchmark suggests a downturn, as does QCEW, Powell conjecture:
The Year in Review, 2025: I wanted lower prices, and all I got is this lousy hole in the ground
Here are some of the most ridiculous (and tragic) events of 2025, in economic or economic policy terms.
