The Swiss National Bank and International Macro at University College Dublin, in cooperation with the Journal of International Money and Finance, are holding a workshop in Zurich on Thursday, 14 November 2025:
I’m teaching a course entitled “The Financial System”, and as part of revising the course, I’m looking at trouble spots. Bill McBride at CR posted this interesting map:
Shutdown?Tariff legality? Travel disruptions? SNAP disruption? Collapsing sentiment? Political uncertainty?
In 2025, it depends. Particularly if you are a Republican/Lean Republic — then it’s almost zero…
Yesterday, University of Michigan Survey consumer sentiment surprised on the downside, (50.3 vs. 53.0 Bloomberg consensus) along multiple dimensions, including assessments of the current situation (52.3 vs. 59.2 consensus) and expectations regarding the future (49.0 vs. 50.3 consensus); and is deteriorating over time.
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Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a unit coefficient, and adjusted R2 of 0.56, SER = 0.00087. The resulting nowcast is shown below.
Not the marrying his mother and killing his father part, but (metaphorically) gouging his own eyes out. From Aaron Sojourner:
Here’s the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025. On Tues, it couldn’t release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data. This morning, it couldn’t release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data. Tomorrow, it can’t release Oct 2025 #JobsReport www.bls.gov/schedule/202…November 6, 2025 at 8:26 AMEverybody can reply
Treasury Secretary Bessent says housing is in recession because of high interest rates. Might not high policy uncertainty have some effect?
ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus).
