From Politico today:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Business Cycle Indicators for November 2024
Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate.
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
From Kalshi, 7pm CT today:
Policy Uncertainty since the Election
As measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis:
Are You a Mainstream (Macro) Economist?
A self test (a follow up to this post):
When You Hear a Critique of Mainstream Economists (from Someone Who Doesn’t Know What “Mainstream” Economists Do), Run
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge:
The Return of Economic Policy Uncertainty
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations begin.
Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in regressions augmented with short rate, from 1946-2023Q3 (GDP growth 1947-2024Q3).
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50.
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
From TradingEconomics on 10/25: