Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Expectations off a Cliff
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Uncertainty: Does It Matter?
From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.
Why Shouldn’t the Stock Market Be Crashing?
Uncertainty from text analysis, and from consumer surveys:
GDPNow and Other Predictions
Accounting for gold, GDPNow for Q1 is at +0.4%.
“King Dollar” by Paul Blustein
In my IRL mailbox! Looking forward to reading… Continue reading
EPU through 3/5
Highest 7 day moving average since Covid…(not sure if that date coincides with “bleach”):
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, yesterday’s lecture:
Trump’s Economic Team and Tariff-fest 2025
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome.
GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed
Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?
EPU on the Rise
EPU through 3/3/2025: