Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier vesion in Project Syndicate.
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Whither Real Rates?
The collision of expansionary fiscal policy, slowing growth, and the erosion of policy credibility, particularly since 27 February 2026, suggests … up and high.
President Trump, Socialist
from Politico today, Douglas Holtz-Eakin:
Does Slowing AI-Related Imports Mean Slowing Investment?
Maybe:
Forecasts and Nowcasts
The August Survey of Professional Forecasters is out:
Sentiment Declines
standardized measures:
Retail Sales Miss
Instead of +0.1% increase, 0.6% drop.
Inflation Adjusted Wages, through July
Estimated FY2026 Budget Deficit
From CBO.
Cost of Living Measures
Including Everyday Price Index™. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI: