July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth?
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Monthly GDP Flat Since March
SPGMI’s estimate as of 8/3:
Mr. Trump, tear down this (hamburger tariff) wall!
From Bloomberg:
Inflation Adjusted Average Hourly Earnings below February 2026 Levels
They’re all lower than they were in February … but deflated using CPI ex shelter (mimicking HICP), they’re down 1.4%.
“I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt.”
That is Donald J. Trump, in May 2016. So why the surprise about debt worries? It was only a question of time.
Import Prices Running Hot
Not just for computers, peripherals and semiconductors – and running hot despite dollar appreciation. From MarketPlace, with Justin Ho, today:
Diesel Near Peak
From the Gasoline and Diesel update, plus EIA:
Business Cycle Indicators: June Production
Industrial production below consensus (+0.2% m/m vs. +0.3% Bloomberg), manufacturing at consensus, although previous month’s revised up. Output measures continue to outpace employment.
Fall 2026 Semester: The Financial System (and Its Challenges)
Last year I added cryptocurrencies and private credit to the coverage. What should I add this Fall?
Are We Safer than We Were 6 Months Ago?
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, no deal apparent, and we are moving the George Washington CSG away from the Pacific.