From CNN. OK.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Stephen Moore Remains Blithely Detached from Reality: Tax Cut Impacts
From Swagel, “CBO’s Estimates of the 2017 Tax Act: Growth and Revenues” released today:
CBO’s April 2018 projections of revenues in 2018 and 2019 were remarkably
accurate.Actual federal revenues in 2018 and 2019 were 99.8 percent and 99.2 percent of
the amounts that CBO projected. In other words, CBO was very slightly
overoptimistic about revenues in the years after enactment of the 2017 tax act,
and the agency’s revenue projection errors for those years were much smaller
than average.
Civilian Employment Peaked in April 2025
So too has CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, a series pushed in the wake of the slow employment recovery from the 2001 recession. On the other hand, preliminary benchmark NFP, and NFP estimated using QCEW data continue to crawl upward.
EJ Antoni ‘s “Sustainable” Employment Measure Is in the Red
EJ Antoni noted a year ago (Sept 6, 2024):
gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healthcare sector [employment growth].. it’s all tax-payer funded, and it’s not at all sustainable
One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP
FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan from CEA), who argued for 50 bps decline.
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways.
EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
That’s the title of an article reprinted at the Heritage.com, by current BLS Commissioner-nominee EJ Antoni,
The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
Coffee prices up and away — in the US.
CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast.
The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”
That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):