For Rep/Dem, 53 cents/51 cents.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
As of today:
Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
News and Sentiment
A snapshot as of July:
“44th International Symposium On Forecasting | Dijon, France”
International Institute of Forecasters’ Conference starting on June 30th. I wish I had the chance to attend again this year.
What Do Joseph Stiglitz, George A. Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric S. Maskin, Daniel L. McFadden , Paul R. Milgrom, Roger B. Myerson, Edmund S. Phelps, Paul M. Romer, Alvin E. Roth, William F. Sharpe, Robert J. Shiller, Christopher A. Sims, and Robert B. Wilson Have In Common?
(1) They all have been awarded The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, and (2) they oppose Mr. Trump’s economic agenda.
GDP, GDO, GDP+
All have a positive gradient in Q1.
Donald Trump on Electric Ships/Boats
From a speech at Las Vegas (source: Newsweek):
Monthly GDP for April, and Other Indicators
Monthly GDP recovers.