Public Service Announcement, for those who wish to talk intelligently about macro, instead of ranting. Here’s what I use (in response to Steven Kopits asking “What the he** do you teach your students, Menzie”). The following are free use, or older editions that have been superseded by newer.
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Consumer Price Index Manual
If you’re going to willy-nilly divide things by random deflators, maybe you should read this (free) manual first.
Are You Better Off than You Were Four Years Ago – Market Based PCE Deflated Consumption
Reader Bruce Hall disparages the use of the PCE deflator for deflating…PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) from the NIPA. OK, it’s true that the PCE deflator uses business facing prices, rather than consumer facing prices. Mr. Hall suggests using the CPI. But that has different weights. (It doesn’t make sense to apply a price index with CPI weights to an aggregate with PCE weights — read some price index theory if that is confusing). What to do? What to do?
Consumption per capita Relative to Trend
Are you better of than you expected four years ago? I use trend growth 2016-2019 to figure out what is “expected”.
Are You Better Off than You Were Five Years Ago?
Reader Steven Kopits writes in response to Are you better off than you were four years ago?:
Decomposing Sentiment
Republicans and lean Republican respondents really, really, really don’t like economic conditions right now, switching “bigly” upon Trump’s election, contributing an outsize impact on the overall University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Democrats and lean Democratic respondents think things are about the same as mid-2016 (under Obama).
Are You Better Off than You Were Four Years Ago?
GDP per capita, consumption per capita, disposable income per capita, unemployment, economic policy uncertainty, VIX, and Misery Index — plus median household income.
Confidence, Sentiment, and News in April: Some Time Series
Sharp reactions to Conference Board consumer confidence index today. Here’s some context for this movement, as well as that in the U.Michigan survey of economic sentiment.
Real Median Household Income for March
Higher for Longer, Illustrated
From Rashad Ahmed today: