Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
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Republicans Seem Near-Impervious to Economic News
From the Michigan survey (final):
Business Cycle Indicator Sit-Rep
A reader asks me about my 2025H1 recession call. I don’t have one, but here’s the latest depiction of indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, as well as alternatives. Only consumption and vehicle miles traveled (and heavy truck sales) seem indicative of recession (maybe GDP using GDPNow).
Envisaging a 40% Decline in Long Beach Container Traffic
Recession Now? The Message from (Final rev’d) Michigan Expectations vs. PMI and CISS
Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%.
Rising Expected Unit Cost Inflation Quantified
From Atlanta Fed:
Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty”
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison.
WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts [updated w/adjusted GDPNow at -0.4%]
The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking.
Guest Contribution: “How to Forecast a Recession”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter vesion, was published by Project Syndicate.
Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index stands at 2.83%.