Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)?
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Nowcasts Rising
Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Summary of Economic Projections: GDP
From the Fed today:
GDPNow at 3% for Q3
Goldman Sachs tracking 2.8%.
Monthly Median Income
From Motio Research, August 2024:
FT-Ross/Michigan Poll on Views of Candidates’ Economic Policies
Who would do better, according to the FT today:
Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Economic News
From the Michigan survey of consumers:
BOFIT: “Russia continued on a more moderate growth path in July..”
From BOFIT: