GDP is only one measure of income. Following up on Jim’s post on GDP (and housing), here are others.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption spending surprises on the upside. Here’s a picture of the series the NBER BCDC follows, along with monthly GDP.
GDP, GDI, GDO, GDP+
“It was the ‘meh’ of times. It was the worst of times…”
Conference Board is on the former, while the U. Michigan sides with the latter.
The Manufacturing Construction Boom and Nonresidential Investment
Deputy Asst Secretary Tara Sinclair and Asst Sec Van Nostrand and Special Asst Gupta discuss the ongoing boom in manufacturing construction. Here’s one graph:
Real Defense Consumption and Investment, 1960-2023Q1
SIFMA Semiannual Survey – the Outlook for Growth
“2023 GDP growth expected at +0.5% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q); 2024 expected at +1.7%” (SIFMA stands for Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) From the Report.
Why Consumption Has Been Sustained
The permanent income hypothesis in its RatEx-no liquidity constraint version says that consumption will adjust upward fully in response to a windfall. This will mean it will take a while to decumulate the “excess savings” transferred during the pandemic. How much remains? Here’s a guess from Torsten Slok:
Capture and Ideology, Debt Ceiling Edition
In my first published peer-reviewed article, Peter Navarro and I argued that both economic special interests and candidate ideology separately could explain Congressional voting farm subsidies (we also applied the framework to domestic content legislation for automobiles), following Kalt and Zupan (AER 1984). In the ongoing discussions of how many members of the Republican caucus would vote for the (yet to be released) debt ceiling bill, I wondered how one would test the separate effects.
“The Charles Ives Opera Award”
My wife Laura Schwendinger, and Ginger Strand, were awarded this prize by the American Academy of Arts and Letters, for their opera Artemisia.