That’s the title of a conference in Padova, September 21-22. Call for papers (deadline 5/31!).
Category Archives: Uncategorized
X-Date Estimate – June 5 or so?
From Zeng and Ryan at DeutscheBank yesterday.
Percent vs. Percentage Points…and…Exponential vs. Linear
One can talk about a percent increase in a profit margin… but that really only serves to confuse.
Why Might Firms Raise Prices Faster than Input Prices?
Josh Bivens at EPI has recently presented a decomposition of price changes into those attributable to price-cost margins (i.e., roughly profits), labor and nonlabor input prices, to wit:
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One Year US Treasury CDS
What’s the chances? Depends on what the assumed recovery rate is. Here’s the cost of insurance.
1 mo-Fed funds Spread vs. 3 mo-1 mo Spread
Inversion on the second, as the first rises, as likelihood of June 1 default rises.
Remembering Trump Economic Prognostications
In the wake of Mr. Trump’s admonition to Republicans to try out default, please recall:
Real Wages, 2007-2023M04
Higher than at previous NBER peak (2020M02):
On Debt Default
Full quote of Donald Trump regarding default (CNBC):
“Well, you might as well do it now because you’ll do it later because we have to save this country. Our country is dying. Our country is being destroyed by stupid people, by very stupid people.”
Of Nowcasts and Revisions
Don’t pay too much attention to the headline change in employment.