With the outsized jump in the PPI, the natural question to ask is whether this implies a jump in the CPI. The evidence is mixed in terms of the aggregate PPI and the aggregate CPI, as noted in this post. More recent analyses suggest the PPI contains predictive power.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
What’s the Defense for Antoni’s Nomination?
Exactly that he doesn’t have citations! From Daily Signal:
President Donald Trump was right to fire BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, a Biden appointee, for these mistakes, even if they were the result of systemic flaws, not partisanship. Antoni, whom Trump nominated as her replacement on Monday, can restore integrity and precision to our most critical economic data agency.
…
A Man Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 Is Still Odds on Favorite for BLS Commissioner
It’s really a statement on our times.
Michigan Survey: Sentiment Down, Inflation Expectations Up
Preliminary readings for August. Not particularly good.
Business Cycle Indicators – Industrial Production, Retail Sales
The picture as of today’s releases, with IP, retail sales below consensus.
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Shocker in PPI: 0.9% vs. 0.2% m/m consensus:
Business Cycle Indicators w/Monthly GDP
SP Global’s monthly GDP series is up (with prediction of flat GDP in Q3):
Additional Thoughts on EJ Antoni’s Nomination to BLS
Thanks to Paul Krugman for citing my brief paper on EJ Antoni’s 2022 recession claim, in “Hackification”, all in the cause of exposing the abuses of data now taking place.
“America in Recession since 2022? A Critique of Antoni-St. Onge”
“Trump’s pick for BLS commissioner suggests suspending the monthly jobs report”
From CNN today:
“Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data,” he told Fox Business. “Major decision-makers from Wall Street to D.C. rely on these numbers, and a lack of confidence in the data has far-reaching consequences.”