Highest 7 day moving average since Covid…(not sure if that date coincides with “bleach”):
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
From Econ442, yesterday’s lecture:
Trump’s Economic Team and Tariff-fest 2025
Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome.
GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed
Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level of GDP?
EPU on the Rise
EPU through 3/3/2025:
Spot the “Events” in this Event Study
Dow Jones:
Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed
A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero.
Policy Uncertainty
High frequency through 3/2:
Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?
Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:
Reinversion Continues
End of week spreads: