Interesting to see how market prices (Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?) jumped, as of 8am Pacific today, as recorded by PredictIt:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
PredictIt: “Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?”
PredictIt at 11am Pacific today:
Is California in Recession? (Part XVIII)
June employment figures are out. Time to re-evaluate this assessment from over one and a half years ago in Political Calculations that California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Now That We Are Winning, Where Is CoRev?
From Reuters today, “Hopes for trade breakthrough fade as China cancels U.S. farm visits”:
A U.S.-China trade deal appeared elusive on Friday after Chinese officials unexpectedly canceled a visit to farms in Montana and Nebraska amid two days of ongoing talks in Washington.
“Massive, rotting soybean pile still burns after catching fire in July”
Key Business Cycle Indicators, August 15th
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink bold), all log normalized to 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, Macroeconomic Advisers (7/25 release), and author’s calculations.
10yr-3mo Spread Barely Budges as 10yr-2yr Approaches Zero
This despite Trump’s temporary delay on additional China tariffs.
The Journal of Economic Perspectives in the Classroom
A collection of JEP articles readers have cited as useful for instruction, by category:
Mass Shootings and the Trump Effect (Part II)
Casualties (killed, wounded) from mass shootings are not continuously distributed; this suggests an alternative approach — given the high variance (shown in Figure 1 below for a subsample of the data) — I estimate a negative binomial regression (quasi-maximum likelihood).
Mass Shootings and the Trump Effect
Poisson regression, 1982M08-2019M08 (thru 8/4 for August):
eventst = -9.84 + 0.723 trumpt – 0.424 bant + 0.0039 time
Adj-R2 = 0.17, SER = 0.480, NOBS = 445. Bold denotes significant at 10% msl.
Addendum, 8/6 8am Pacific: events is mass shooting event count as defined by Mother Jones tabulation, ban is assault weapons ban dummy, trump is a Trump administration dummy, time is a linear time trend.
Interpretation: Each month of the Trump administration is associated 0.7 more mass shooting events 70% more mass shooting events, so jumping from 0.43 to 0.88 events going from 2016M12 to 2017M01; or approximately 5.4 more events per year 8.4 more events per year. [h/t Rick Stryker for correction of interpretation].