Here’s some data, from BOFIT, “Russian federal budget revenues continue to deteriorate,” published today:”
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A Depressed Growth Trajectory: The Wall Street Journal July Survey
Forecasters are downbeat relative April survey (Figure 1). And about a third forecast negative Q/Q growth in 2022Q2, but the mean (and median) forecast is for positive growth, as shown in Figure 2 (though there being two consecutive quarters of negative growth are not central to determining whether NBER BCDC declares a recession). About a fifth of respondents predict at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth starting later in 2022-23.
Nowcasts, July 8th
GS vs Atlanta and IHS-Markit:
Some Correlations on Mass Shootings, Updated
Estimating through beginning of July, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
GDP, GDO, and Seasonally Adjusted vs. Not Seasonally Adjusted
Year-on-year picture:
GDP and GDO, 3rd vs 2nd release
From BEA today:
Reminders: Don’t Accuse People of Manipulating the Data before Figuring Out What Has Been Done, and Other Helpful Hints for Not Losing All Credibility
Some additional notes for my students:
Reminders: Logs, Chain-Weights, Confidence Intervals, Data Footnotes, Data Revisions, and Stereotypes
Notes for my students:
Nowcasts and Forecasts
of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):
In Memory of Robert Haveman
Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague, co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.