Estimating through end-May, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Some Time Series Data on Mass Shootings
Assault weapons ban and Trump effects.
Five Years of S&P 500 Daily Changes
(log first differences):
Worst Statistical Analysis I Have *Ever* Seen (linked to by Mr. Bruce Hall)
This is a reprint of a post from 2020.
(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]
Reader Bruce Hall recommends links to this article which asserts that 2020 is not anomalous in terms of deaths. In fact, it’s 20th out the last 21 years!
Financial Market Signals, Post-FOMC
Higher rates soon, long term inflation expectations anchored, and on term spread signals growth (as do real rates).
Seminars on Economic Forecasting
Econbrowser has hosted lots debates about how to forecast. For people who want to learn how forecasting is done, here are two series I’ve been made aware of.
- International Institute of Forecasters Chair, Laurent Ferrara
- HO Steckler Program on Forecasting Director, Tara Sinclair
The IIF’s next session is with Mike McCracken (St. Louis Fed) on “On the real-time predictive content of financial conditions indexes for growth” (May 10). The HO Steckler Program’s two speakers are Juhee Bae (University Of Glasgow) “Forecasting With Partial Least Squares When A Large Number Of Predictors Are Available” (May 5), and Renee Fry-McKibbin (ANU) “Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence” (May 12).
I’m sure I’m missing many others, so suggestions welcome.
And since I’m doing a public service ad, here’s the link to economics data sources, so even if you don’t want to do econometrics, at least you can look up the data yourself to see if your preconceived notions are validated or not (i.e., don’t believe your typical ZeroHedge post..).
Remarkable Things People Say
In this case, one person. Steven Kopits writes:
4. The US is immune to an oil shock on paper as we are ostensibly energy independent in oil. We’ve seen this play out before. US oil consumption declined from June 2011 to December 2012 — 18 months — without the US falling into recession, something which is historically unprecedented in modern times. By contrast, Europe fell into a steep recession during this period — Q4 2011 through Q1 2013.
Term Spread Models and Recession Probabilities for April 2023
Worries about recession are rising:
“American Power, Prosperity and Democracy” – LaFollette Forum 2022
The La Follette School will host its third La Follette Forum, funded by the Kohl Initiative and the Center for European Studies, on Wednesday, May 4, 2022. With guest speakers Adam Posen (Peterson IIE), Catherine Rampell (WaPo), Paul Blustein (formerly WSJ, WaPo), Oriana Skylar Mastro (Stanford), Jamelle Bouie (NYT), Daniel Ziblatt (Harvard), and discussion by UW faculty.
Fantasies of the Past
From people who extrapolate from personal observations, while dismissing statistics; to wit:
The chip shortage is ending. My Whirlpool contact told me they are now back to full production and going downstream to a HVAC company I am related to, all chip shortages ended in late summer.
Auto will be over by Halloween. Production of new cars will surge into 2021. Creating deflationary pressures. People like Condon don’t anticipate, they create intellectual fantasies.
That was a comment by Gregory Bott in September 2021.
So read this latest comment (from today) regarding the oil price increase/Russian invasion impact on economic prospects with that prognostication in mind:
I see little actual disruption. My guess by May, this will be reversed. Much like the coming upward revisions to gdp/payrolls in 2020-21. Be careful with struggling government data.
Gregory Bott may turn out to be right in the end. But I’m not betting on it (and I just really don’t know how people can be confident about things when the situation is so fluid).