MilitaryNews just now:
Trump is not ruling out sending U.S. troops to secure Gaza, saying in response to a reporter’s question: “As far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that.”
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Fourth (maybe Third) Largest Tax Increase Ever – China 2025 Tariffs
No tariffs yet on Canada, Mexico (and EU for that matter). Still, 10% on $427 bn imports (on top of previous tariffs) is a big deal.
Uncertainty – Economic and Trade Policy, Day by Day
Through 2/2/2025 (for EPU):
Bessent’s 3-3-3 “Plan” in the Context of 2024Q4 Advance GDP Release
Actual hit GDPNow nowcast of 2.3%, q/q AR (see Jim’s post for a discussion) Still, achieving Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 3% annual growth (in addition to 3% deficits and additional 3 million barrels oil) is going to be tough.
Hiring Freeze at the FAA
From article 8 days ago:
…the White House has put a hiring freeze in place, prohibiting the replacement of open government positions or the creation of new ones while the administration evaluates reductions in the workforce. The White House plans to release a memorandum with further guidance within 90 days. This has drawn criticism from lawmakers as the FAA has been ramping up controller hiring.
2024Q4 Advance Release Tomorrow
Bloomberg consensus 2.7%, GDPNow 2.3% as of today. Jim Hamilton comments on the release tomorrow.
Economic Confidence in the Future Declines
January Conference Board confidence index comes in at 104.1 vs. 105.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from 109.5 in December. A 5.4 point decline is about 1 standard deviation (2021M07-2024M12). More interestingly, expectations (as opposed to current situation) is also down.
Egg Prices and Egg Contracts for Difference
Egg prices and price index through December, egg CFDs through January.
Macroeconomic Policy Lecture 1 – Graphs for 2025
Started teaching on Wednesday. Here’re some graphs in the intro lecture on macro policy (now that content is gated, and only accessible to students).
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: