Reader JohnH writes about the discourse on Econbrowser:
Amazing the Krugman’s minimalist treatment of inequality far exceeds what I see mentioned here!
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Weekly Macro Indicators through April 8
Here’re some macro indices at the weekly frequency for the real economy.
How Well Do Adaptive Inflation Expectations Do, 1982-2023?
Answer: so-so.
Reader Erik Poole commenting on this figure (in this post) writes:
Assuming that the all the inflation forecasts are one-year forecasts in the above chart, do we have any kind of inflation expectations data for shorter time frames, such as 6 months?
The above is a fancy way of asking: are financial markets and professional forecastersb really that bad at forecasting inflation?
Glancing at the above chart, it appears to make a good argument for adaptive expectations driving economic agents inflation expectations.
White House on Revising Guidance on “Regulatory Analysis”
Otherwise known as Circular A-4. dated April 6, 2023.
Nonfarm Employment Rises
In line with expectations.
Art and Music Friday on Econbrowser
Billionaire Crow and the acolytes (it’s apparently not a photo, but a piece of photorealism):
Oil Prices, Fed Funds Path Up
A Statistical Analysis of Implications of Using the “China Virus” Phrase
Trump used it. A reader wrote “A China virus is not racist, it’s placist.” My view is that since there was already a widely known term for the virus, it was unnecessary to resort to a made up moniker. Han, Riddell and Piquero (2023) examines what happened in the aftermath of the popularization of the term.
Mass Shooting Correlates, through March 2023
Estimating through March 29, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
A Stryker Velocity Model
A two regime Markov switching model for the log of M2 velocity, 1959-2022, as suggested by Rick Stryker: