From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard):
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Ode on a Bruce Hall Link
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.
Jackboots in Popular Discourse, or “Where did we really see (govt) jackboots?”
In defending the Kudlow alternative math calculation of net job gains in first 30 months of the Trump and Biden administrations, Mr. Bruce Hall writes:
Almost Half a Century of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01.
Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.
Official and Supplemental Poverty Rates, through 2022
The Bureau of the Census has just released numbers for Official Poverty Rate, as well as the Supplemental (the latter takes into account taxes and transfers, and is more relevant for thinking about the actual welfare of individuals).
The Atavistic Component of Consumer Sentiment
One of the enduring mysteries of the past two years is why measured economic sentiment remains so sour despite objectively good economic outcomes.
If Child Labor Is OK, Why Not Poorhouses?
From WIZM:
Children ages 14 and 15 would no longer need a work permit or parental permission to get a job under a bill Republican Wisconsin lawmakers released last last week.
The proposal comes amid a wider push by mainly Republican state lawmakers to roll back child labor laws, despite the efforts of federal investigators to crack down on a surge in child labor violations nationally.
Defending the Ruble
Interest rate up. Presumably more intervention, and reconstituted capital controls — although it’s hard to tell. So, when you see the picture of the ruble rebound…
Russia’s Current Account Surplus Disappears
BOFIT also notes the ruble’s weakening. Here’s a picture of the CA through June.