From Sandberg, et al. (July 2019) in Epidemiology:
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37 Years Ago Today: “It’s because of you little motherf*****s that we’re out of work!”
On this day, in 1982, at the height of the hysteria focused on competition from Japan, two unemployed auto workers chased down Vincent Chin — celebrating his bachelor’s party — and beat him senseless with a baseball bat (he subsequently died from his injuries). As we re-establish Camp Sill as an internment/detention/concentration camp (you pick the term), and the deportation campaign — real or imagined — is announced, it’s perhaps time to recall the warning signs:
In context:
Down, Down, Down: 10 Year Yields in Advanced Countries
Perusing the last issue of the Economist, I noted that among advanced economies, only Greece (180 bps), Spain (87 bps), Australia (133 bps), South Korea (112 bps) and Chile (108 bps) had larger declines in the ten year yields than the US (81 bps).
Of these, one could argue Greece and Spain declines were attributable to a decline in default risk, leaving only Australia, South Korea and Chile.
Figure 1 below illustrates what has happened to 10yr-3mo, 10yr-2yr and 5yr-3mo spreads over the past year (indicated by vertical green line)
“[L]et’s have Bretton Woods again.” Arthur Laffer 1982
And maybe other folks, up for the Fed? Well, Judy Shelton says gold might be the way to go…
That’s from an interview Erik Brynjolffson, Tod Loofbourrow and I conducted back in 1982 for the Harvard International Review. So, if Obama’s November 2008 election could’ve caused the Great Recession that started in December 2007 (and the Lehman Brothers collapse in September of 2008) as Laffer has claimed, why not Bretton Woods redux?
CEA Leadership, January 2001 vs. June 2019
I was reminded as I found a photo of the January 2001 CEA and staff, of how economic analysis has evolved over time in the White House.
Bleg: Puzzles in the Hassett Economic Report of the President, 2019
In the wake of the discussion of Figure 1-6 in the ERP, I thought it might be useful for me to collect up questions about puzzling or misleading graphs/tables or conclusions in the Report.
The entire document is here.
I don’t think I have ever made a similar request. However, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a similar CEA “massage the message” in quite the same way. Even the G.W. Bush CEA (of which I was briefly a part of) did not make such blatantly misleading graphics as highlighted in this post.
Clarification (3PM): I’ll then compile the contributions with my comments in a new post.
More Widening Spreads
The Left Coast Ensemble Presents “Artemisia”
The world premiere (in chamber version) of the opera composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand with the Left Coast Ensemble. Update with review by SF Classical Voice.
National Security Motivations for Protection, and Agricultural Policy Determinants
Given recent developments in the use of Section 232 in steel, aluminum, possibly uranium and automobiles, as well as the increasingly expensive bailouts of the ag sector, it behooves us to see some earlier perspectives on the use of such protectionist and interventionist measures, as provided by Peter Navarro.
Inversion (Again)!
Figure 1: Treasury 10yr-3mo spread (blue), 10yr-2yr (red), 5yr-3mo (teal), in %. Source: Fed via FRED, US Treasury.
Figure 2: Treasury 10yr-3mo spread (blue), 10yr-2yr (red), 5yr-3mo (teal), in %, in 2019. Source: Fed via FRED, US Treasury.
Over the last month, the 10yr-3mo spread has averaged 4 bps — so not quite inversion on a monthly basis.