From Atlanta Fed and IHS Markit:
Category Archives: Uncategorized
The Ratio of GDI to GDP
Is at record highs (at least back to 1947, using latest available data).
What Pushed Nowcasts Up?
Following up on the previous nowcast post, there are two items of relevance: (1) trade balance (for May); (2) manufacturing orders. Here’s trade balance (release):
The Fiscal and FX Crises of the Russian State (in War)
From Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy (July 2022):
IMF Downgrades Growth Outlook
Risks heavily weighted to downside, in newest WEO, released today:
If You Think the Russian Government Is Doing Just Fine Because of Oil/Gas Revenues…
Here’s some data, from BOFIT, “Russian federal budget revenues continue to deteriorate,” published today:”
A Depressed Growth Trajectory: The Wall Street Journal July Survey
Forecasters are downbeat relative April survey (Figure 1). And about a third forecast negative Q/Q growth in 2022Q2, but the mean (and median) forecast is for positive growth, as shown in Figure 2 (though there being two consecutive quarters of negative growth are not central to determining whether NBER BCDC declares a recession). About a fifth of respondents predict at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth starting later in 2022-23.
Nowcasts, July 8th
GS vs Atlanta and IHS-Markit:
Some Correlations on Mass Shootings, Updated
Estimating through beginning of July, regressions of mass shooting casualties, and mass shooting events:
GDP, GDO, and Seasonally Adjusted vs. Not Seasonally Adjusted
Year-on-year picture: