On the eve of the primary votes in Wisconsin, where protectionists are set to make some inroads, it’s of interest to consider the state’s reliance on exports — including those to China (a target of both Senator Sanders and Mr. Trump) and Mexico [1].
Category Archives: Wisconsin
Wisconsin Employment Still Lags (Quelle Surprise!)
BLS just released state level data. Wisconsin employment nonfarm payroll employment is up, but remains below what is expected given the historical relationship between US and Wisconsin employment — by 63.2 thousand…
“The End of Research in Wisconsin”
That’s the title of a Slate article documenting the implications of recent policy actions implemented in the state of Wisconsin.
Not Quite: “…Wisconsin has left its former Democratic party-controlled (Midwest) peers behind”
One conservative meme is that Wisconsin’s apparently poor economic performance relative to other Midwest states is due to an inappropriate choice of reference dates; for instance, a year ago, Political Calculations made the assertion in the title, based on a July 2013 reference date. The logic?
Benchmarked Wisconsin Private Nonfarm Payroll Declines
While the BLS state level data will come out on Monday (see discussion here), the individual states release slightly earlier. Wisconsin released employment data today.
The Wisconsin Employment Boom Will Be Revised Away
Not so certain the slowdown will be similarly erased.
Stall Speed in Wisconsin?
The Philadelphia Fed has released leading indicators for December. Essentially zero growth in Wisconsin over the next six months is predicted.
Philadelphia Fed Coincident Indices: National, Regional and State Trends
More states are slowing even as the Nation continues to expand. The states that contracted include Wisconsin and Kansas, states pursuing a contractionary fiscal policy. Wisconsin’s level of activity lags that predicted by historical correlations.
Wisconsin Governor Walker: “The state of our state is strong!”
That’s the first line of an op-ed published Monday. In other news, Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (NFP) and private nonfarm payroll employment is decreasing. And NFP lagging what should be the case if the historical correlation between national and Wisconsin employment held, after Governor Walker’s inauguration.
Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), forecast from error correction model estimated over 1990M03-2009M06 (red), and 90% confidence band (gray lines), all on log scale. Dashed line at 2011M01 when Walker takes office, and light green denotes sample period. Source: BLS, author’s estimates (as described here).
Three Random Graphs: Recession Watch, Wisconsin Employment Decline, Global Temperatures
Industrial production is down. Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment is down. Global Temperatures hit records in 2014, 2015.