What exactly has the current administration gotten us? Not lower prices (as was promised). For now, not apparently safer skies.
Economic Policy Uncertainty Up
We should all be relieved that there’s been a 90 day pause in the tariffs on Chinese imports, but since they’re on tap in 90 days, and at unknown levels, don’t be surprised that uncertainty remains high…
Momentum in “Core” GDP
According to GDPNow of 4/8. However, GDP and final sales are both on a lower trajectory.
“Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
I’ll be discussing this topic on Wednesday at the University of Wisconsin’s Union South (5:30), under the auspices of the Madison Committee on Foreign Relations.
GS: “The goods trade deficit widened by $16.5bn, driven mainly by front-loading of imports of pharmaceutical products from Ireland”
That’s from GS yesterday. Question: Should one stock up on ibuprofen, because I anticipate a lot of headaches coming. Asking for a friend.
Business Cycle Indicators – 6 May 2025
Monthly GDP is added to key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Plain Vanilla 12-month ahead Recession Predictions
Probit regression recession on 10yr-3mo spread and 3 month interest rate:
American Association of Physicians and Surgeons Opines on … Gold
For my sins, I get emails from AAPS:
Alternative Estimates of Output
GDP is a measure of output from the spending side. A standard alternative measure is Gross Domestic Output (GDO), the average of GDP and GDI.
A Closer Look at Employment
Transportation and warehousing boomed. Federal government workers on leave, taking buyouts not included yet (per convention).