See full document here (couldn’t download from Heritage when I tried). Here’s the text for monetary policy.
Alternative Employment Measures of NFP
CPS based series adjusted to NFP way below official NFP, early benchmark.
Employment Situation and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP at +206K vs +191K.
Consensus vs Actual – Real Time Sahm Rule for June [updated]
Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time):
What If ADP Is Registering the True Employment Growth Rate?
Then instead of 135224 thousand private employment in April, it would be 135509 thousand.
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP from SPGMI (formerly IHS-Markit, and Macroeconomic Advisers before that).
Latest Wisconsin Macro Indicators
Last week we got GDP and wages and salaries for Q1, as well as employment and coincident indicators for May. With these data, we have the following picture.
Guest Contribution: “Central bank Credibility and Institutional Resilience”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Christopher A. Hartwell (ZHAW School of Management and Law, Switzerland), and Pierre Siklos (Professor Emeritus at Wilfrid Laurier University; and Balsillie School of International Affairs, Canada).
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable
With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture:
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from whether fiat money as currently established in the United States as unconstitutional (e.g., see here). I also defer discussion on whether the Federal Reserve is constitutional.