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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Why The MacIver Institute Should Be Charged with Data Abuse

In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Productivity, Demand and Manufacturing Employment

Is the decline in manufacturing employment due to trade competition? Insights from a decomposition.

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This entry was posted on January 22, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)

From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]

When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”

That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread

Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look at the data:

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This entry was posted on January 21, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The American People on the Incipient Tariffs

From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“:

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This entry was posted on January 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”

That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese-made imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter. I show implied effects on PCE deflator inflation, and GDP relative to January 2025 CBO projection.

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This entry was posted on January 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “

A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this series back to 1960 in the figure below.

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This entry was posted on January 19, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts

CBO released its ten year outlook today (as did the IMF in the WEO January update). Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey.

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This entry was posted on January 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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