A self test (a follow up to this post):
When You Hear a Critique of Mainstream Economists (from Someone Who Doesn’t Know What “Mainstream” Economists Do), Run
“Trumpflation” Risks Likely Overstated by Lance Roberts via Zerohedge:
QCEW Employment Change Y/Y to June 2024
The percentage change is less than that for the CES estimate. Does this mean there are a lot fewer people employed that indicated by the official series (e.g. here)? Here’s data from 2023M06 onward:
Russia: Policy Rate at 21%, Official Inflation Rate at 10% (m/m annualized)
Locking up the butter in Russia (CNN). Official inflation in October was 0.8% m/m (annualize that and it’s about 10%. That’s the official inflation rate. The ex post rate is around 11% then.
Natural (but Stupid) Experiments?
Since the incoming administration has indicated the deportations will start on day one, I thought it of use to consider the sectoral impacts of a policy of mass deportation (aside from macro based ones as discussed here).
Guest Contribution: “How Institutions Interact with Exchange Rates After the 2024 US Presidential Election: New High-Frequency Evidence”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.
Instantaneous Consumer Inflation in October
Including HICP and nowcasted PCE deflator.
The Echo Chamber of Stupid: “Recession since 2022”
Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Continue reading
The Return of Economic Policy Uncertainty
Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations begin.
Guest Contribution: “The anti-incumbent wave is real. But it’s not (really) about inflation”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of Wisconsin – Madison) and Michael Wagner (Journalism and Mass Communication, University of Wisconsin – Madison).