The latest GDP release gives me the opportunity to re-evaluate whether job creation is less than what would be expected, given the growth in real GDP. At first glance, it seems obvious that growth in employment is less than expected. A simple OLS regression of log private employment on log real GDP over the 1987Q1-2012Q3, which might be implied by a particular form of Okun’s Law.
Economic Effects of Hurricane Sandy
As the eastern U.S. tries to dig out from under the devastation, I thought it might be useful to comment on the economic consequences that a storm like this could have.
Romney/Ryan on FEMA and NOAA
With an update (10/31) “Obama cuts FEMA funding by 3 percent. Romney-Ryan cuts it by 40 percent. Or more. Or less.”.
From National Journal, Governor Romney on FEMA:
Yet another discouraging GDP report
That’s the same title I used to summarize the U.S. 2012:Q2 GDP report released back in July. Doesn’t look like there’s much need to use any different headline for the 2012:Q3 numbers released on Friday.
Romney Assesses the Motor Vehicle Sector
With an update (in response to comments alleging media bias) from the leftist publication, Wall Street Journal.
In a speech Thursday, Governor Romney stated:
Why Governor Romney’s Threat on the Chinese Currency Matters
Maybe. Governor Romney has stated that he will declare China a currency manipulator on Day One, should he be elected President. In contrast to his other policy positions – from tax rates on the upper incomes, defense spending, coverage of pre-existing health conditions, the Blunt Amendment, Afghanistan timetable, first strike on Iran – he has exhibited remarkable (and pretty unique) constancy in his desire to call China a currency manipulator. In fact, one can find news reports from 2007 onward attesting to this long-standing stance [1], [2], [3]; so if there is any promise we should believe he will follow through on, it’s this one. And from Believe In America: Mitt Romney’s Plan for Jobs and Economic Growth (under “Day One”), it is:
Electoral maps
Here are two maps for those trying to follow the U.S. presidential election.
Guest Contribution: How “Different” is the Recovery from the Financial Crisis?
By David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan
Today, we’re fortunate to have David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, as Guest Contributors
Enter the Asterisk
The magic asterisk, that is (With apologies to Bruce Lee [0] and David Stockman). How the circle can be squared, in the Romney tax plan: assume a massive supply side response! [1]
Reducing oil imports
On Wednesday I noted that encouraging more U.S. oil production was unlikely to result in a significant drop in U.S. retail gasoline prices. Nevertheless, I believe that there would be some important economic benefits from lowering the U.S. oil import bill, as I discuss here.